Does South Sudan, born out of a protracted civil war, want to destroy itself by falling victim to another civil war? Even those not given to gloomy prognosis know the next few weeks will be crucial for the survival and stability of Africa's three-year-old nation. If US Secretary of State John Kerry's intervention in Africa does not meet the fate of his well-meaning efforts in Mideast and Ukraine, negotiations between South Sudanese President Salva Kiir and his former deputy Riek Machar may start as early as next week. Kerry has already won a promise from Kiir to sit down with his rival Machar. Machar has not formally reacted to the proposal, though the former vice president had indicated a willingness to engage in peace talks. The fighting in South Sudan started when Kiir accused Machar of plotting a coup to seize power last December. Machar denied the charges, but did not find anything wrong with mobilizing a rebel force to fight the government. What began as a power tussle between two individuals soon assumed, as is often the case in Africa, an ethnic dimension because Kiir is a Dinka and Machar a Nuer. If the civil war in Sudan that led to the secession of South Sudan was between a predominantly Muslim North and a largely Christian South, the conflict in South Sudan is clearly ethnic. In January the two factions signed a cease-fire agreement but it never took hold. But this time there are grounds for hope. For one thing, South Sudan's neighbors and biggest foreign backers are actively engaged in peace efforts. Secondly, the president has removed a major sticking point in peace talks by releasing four South Sudan leaders accused of rebellion and treason. Negotiations are expected to lead to a cease-fire followed by the formation of a transitional government. There is no time to lose. Nearly six months of horrific fighting along ethnic lines has killed close to 10,000 people, according to the International Crisis Group. The pace and severity of attacks has escalated in recent weeks, raising the specter of a genocide like the one in nearby Rwanda two decades ago. That more than 9,000 children have been recruited into the armed forces of both sides adds to the concerns of the world community. The intensity of violence is such that Kerry has to warn rival factions of possible war crimes prosecutions, if the killing of civilians goes on. More than one million people in South Sudan have fled their homes. Since this is planting season, famine could be the result, affecting up to a million people in a matter of months, according to aid officials. UNICEF is warning that up to 50,000 children could die of malnutrition this year. The World Food Program (WFP) says it faces a $224 million shortfall of an emergency request made to feed 1.1 million people. A donor's conference is set for May 20. Even if funds are raised, WFP will be unable to move food into areas of active conflict unless the fighting stops. Economic costs are no less huge. At stake is one of the African continent's most lucrative deposits of oil, generating billions of dollars for the world's youngest nation and its partners. Oil output has dropped more than 20 percent since the conflict began as rebels have seized vital oil-producing regions. Before the crisis, South Sudan was producing about 220,000 to 240,000 barrels of oil per day, with roughly two-thirds heading to China that has invested billions in South Sudan's oil infrastructure. South Sudan depends on oil for 98 percent of its revenue, and a prolonged conflict could empty its coffers and bring more chaos. Though the root cause of the dispute was political power, it has turned into a fight over South Sudan's strategic oil-rich regions. The capitals of two of these areas, Bentiu and Malakal, have changed hands more than once. Battles also have been fought in Bor, the capital of a region with untapped oil reserves that are potentially lucrative. The opposition thinks capturing oil fields will help increase their bargain power in cease-fire negotiations. “Bloodshed is an undeniable part of our past,” Information Minister Michael Makuei Lueth said on Thursday. Kiir and Machar have an opportunity to rewrite this history and decide whether their new nation should be part of Africa's success story or become just another failed, violent state. They need the support of the international community, especially their African neighbors. A stable, prosperous South Sudan is in their interest too.
