South Sudan is the youngest country in the world. But the conflict that has shaken this African nation has its origin in one of the continent's oldest feuds, revolving around tribal loyalties and pride. This is not the only thing that should raise world concerns about the escalating violence in that country. South Sudan is rich in oil. It gets nearly 99 percent of its government budget from oil revenues, reportedly earning $1.3 billion in oil sales in just five months this year. Competition for oil wealth can exacerbate the conflict between Dinka — the country's majority tribal group — and Nuer, the second largest tribe. President Salva Kiir belongs to the majority while the ousted Vice President Riek Machar is Nuer. Now add to this explosive mix the Sudanese fear of a disruption in oil supply from the South. South Sudan won independence from Sudan in 2011 under a 2005 peace deal after a 22-year civil war that left more than a million people dead. Landlocked South Sudan relies on Sudan to refine its crude and export it from Port Sudan on the Red Sea. This means that oil is an important source of income for both states. Sudan fears clashes between rival army factions in South Sudan could affect the flow of oil through Sudanese territory. Then there are worries over security threats if fighting spreads from oil-rich Jonglei state, northeast of South Sudan's capital Juba, to areas that border Sudanese territory. Fighting broke out between Dinka and Nuer members of the presidential guard late Sunday night and clashes spread across the country over the next several days. The origin of the conflict lies in longstanding tribal animosities between Dinka and the Nuer people, Machar's ouster from the country's No. 2 political position earlier this year exacerbating the situation. The fighting has already claimed more than 500 lives. Thousands of people are seeking refuge at UN bases in three locations across the country. Three peacekeepers lost their lives in a militia attack on UN's Jonglei camp. Several countries are preparing to evacuate their nationals. According to Kiir, a Machar-engineered coup had triggered the violence but the ousted vice president has denied any intention of toppling his former boss. Machar has been a central figure in Sudanese and South Sudanese politics for three decades. He was also a senior commander in the rebel Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) that fought the central government in Khartoum. So it is unlikely that he or his tribe will give up easily, especially after the town of Bor has fallen into their hands. There is every chance that if the fighting is not halted, South Sudan will be the battleground for a prolonged civil war — just as undivided Sudan was from 1955 until 1972, and again from 1983 until 2005. Following decades of conflict, weapons such as machine guns are easily available in much of South Sudan. Only a political settlement can avoid a wider conflagration drawing in neighboring countries. US Secretary of State John Kerry is sending a special envoy to South Sudan. A delegation of East African foreign ministers is already in Juba on a mediation mission. South Sudan's friends and neighbors should arrange for an immediate ceasefire followed by negotiations by rival groups. Both sides (Dinka and Nuer) should urge calm and support reconciliation if their country born out of civil war is not to fall its latest victim.
