The European Union's hopes of greater global clout centred on Ireland on Friday where voting was underway in a referendum that risked plunging the bloc into crisis if the Irish again reject the Lisbon Treaty, according to Reuters. Europe is counting on Ireland to ratify the treaty after the country, accounting for less than 1 percent of the EU's nearly half a billion population, held up the reform charter's introduction in a "No" vote last year. Opinion polls suggest this time around Ireland will say "Yes" after securing concessions from Brussels and amid fears a second rejection would isolate the country as it battles one of the worst recessions in the western world. But anger with the government, evidenced in protest marches, anti-Lisbon posters and sometimes obscene graffiti decrying the demise of the "Celtic Tiger" economy, could make for a tight result. Irish 10-year debt yields have widened more than 20 basis points over the German benchmark bund since Wednesday as risk-averse investors avoid a punt on an easy "Yes". "It's just a risk that's probably not worth taking," said Alan McQuaid, chief economist at Dublin-based brokerage Bloxham. "If there were to be a 'No' vote bond yields would just spiral out dramatically on Monday." In the leafy middle class Dublin suburb of Booterstown, the vast majority of people asked by Reuters as they departed a polling centre said they had voted in favour of the charter. But many were doing so through gritted teeth. "I begrudgingly voted 'Yes' because I felt I had to, to a certain degree," said David Early, a 28-year-old photographer. Prime Minister Brian Cowen, who could lose his job if he presides over a second defeat, has warned rejection could spark an exodus of foreign investment and has urged people to set aside their feelings about him when they tick the ballot paper. But his pleas have angered many people struggling with unemployment, higher taxes and the possible prospect of lower social welfare payments in the next austerity budget. "I wouldn't vote for anything this government wanted," said unemployed Patrick Nalty, 50, after voting in inner city Dublin, where walls have been plastered with campaign posters. Turnout was slow across the country but polling centres are open until 2100 GMT. The Lisbon Treaty, designed to speed up decision-making in the EU, give it a long-term president and a stronger foreign policy chief, needs to be ratified by all 27 member states in order to take effect. A second rejection would severely delay EU integration and further enlargement as well as weaken the euro currency and open the possibility of a two-tier Europe. An Irish "Yes" would put pressure on eurosceptic presidents in Poland and the Czech Republic to sign it into law. President Lech Kaczynski of Poland said he was willing to ratify the charter if Ireland votes "Yes" but President Vaclav Klaus of the Czech Republic is likely to stall his approval after 17 senators filed a constitutional complaint against the treaty. "(Kaczynski) will do it immediately after an official release of the results in Ireland," Kaczynski's aide Pawel Wypych told the Dziennik daily. "We can say that 'immediately' in this case means next week," he added. In Prague, Klaus may try and stall signing until a British election, due by June next year, which would likely sweep the Conservative Party into power with their pledge of a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. But if the Czech Constitutional Court rejects the latest complaint before then he may be forced to adopt, marking the final scene in a tortuous ratification drama. "Saturday evening we will be looking at a different EU because most people will calculate that Klaus will sign and therefore the treaty will enter into force, like lightning in EU terms, from January 2010," said Hugo Brady, political analyst at the Centre for European Reform think-tank and a native of Ireland. Ireland, after months under the spotlight, would bask in the glow of European approval, side-stepping domestic political crisis and boosting its reputation. "I think that will be the day that Ireland's economic recovery really begins," said Brady.
