The Arab world can boast of exceptional assets – a world religion revealed in the Arabic language; a land area extending from the Atlantic to the Gulf; great oil and gas resources; ancient cities bearing striking witness to past civilizations; a young and vigorous population eager for change. But one crucial attribute is missing – democracy. The Arab Reform Initiative (ARI) has set out to expose – and remedy – this deficit. It is a bold attempt by an independent network of 10 Arab think tanks to pinpoint abuses, reward serious effort, and promote real democracy across the Arab region. The premise it has adopted is that people are the source of power. ARI's second report – The State of Reform in the Arab World 2009-2010, published last week from its Paris headquarters – is an uncompromising audit of the status of democratic transition in Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Yemen. The Report recognizes that there is a tendency towards democratic transition in the region as a whole, but it is patchy and halting. Moreover, it tends to be driven from abroad rather than initiated internally. The heart of the Report is an Arab Democracy Index, which rates each country against numerous, highly detailed indicators. Some advances have been made here and there – notably in illiteracy levels, equality in wages for men and women, censorship of publications and a sense of personal safety – but the Arab world's transition to democracy remains embryonic. In some cases there has even been movement backwards. Afflicted by violence and internal conflict, Yemen and Palestine have shown the greatest regression in progress towards democracy. In contrast, Jordan, closely followed by Morocco, can claim the highest score in the process of democratic transition, although they both score poorly with regard to issues such as interference by the security services and the organizing of meetings and protests. The Report notes that the absence of democracy tends to generate political instability as well as security problems. In the Arab East – the Mashrek – ruling groups, often in alliance with the security services and the owners of capital, lack the political will for reform. In North Africa – the Maghreb – ruling regimes have in fact increased their power to resist pressure for reform. In some cases, they have reformed legislation only to avoid reforming actual practices. Throughout the region, the cult of secrecy had spread. The more authoritarian a regime, the Report notes, the more it restricts the ability to access information. The Arab Democracy Index is based on a reading of 40 different indicators relevant to the process of democratization. These indicators have been selected as they relate to daily political, economic and social issues reflecting the entire democratic decision-making process. They are grouped around four major values: the presence of strong and accountable public institutions; respect for rights and freedoms; the rule of law; and equality and social justice. The Index is a numerical projection of the democratic transition process. The following are some of the indicators used to compile the Index: the holding of periodic and fair elections; the freedom to form political parties; the right of assembly; guarantees against torture; freedom of the media; the independence of the judiciary; gender equality; government accountability; corruption in public institutions; the use of wasta (favoritism) in public employment; violations of the Constitution; the ill-treatment of detainees; the suppression of protests and demonstrations; interference by the security services; criticism of the authorities; the existence of opposition newspapers and magazines; censorship of publications and internet sites; detention without charge; security courts; the ability of human rights organizations to operate; personal safety; education; the participation of women in the labour force; equality in wages; and the level of public expenditure on social needs compared to security. The authors admit to some weaknesses in their methodology. A quantitative approach makes little mention of quality. For example, counting the number of political parties in any regime says little about the status or seriousness of these parties; the number of years spent in school is no indication of the quality of education provided. In addition, there is no single formula to demarcate transition to democracy, regardless of whether it is positive or negative. Moreover, it is not easy, or even fair, to rank countries whose political and social systems are fundamentally very different. Nevertheless, however flawed, the attempt to analyze and rank countries on a Democracy Index is well worth the considerable effort. It has involved intense field work for several months by teams in all ten countries. There is no room here to detail the Report's specific recommendations for each of the 10 countries surveyed, but the general recommendations are as follows: q The issues of social justice and social and economic rights lie at the core of the reform process, and must be addressed. q Bigger budgets should be allotted to combating illiteracy, reducing school drop-outs and improving the conditions of education, especially for females. q Finally, there is a need to strengthen public institutions – mainly parliaments, the judiciary and the authorities responsible for law and order. This is a groundbreaking report which every Arab leader should read and ponder. In a world of rapid technological and geopolitical change, standing still for the Arabs is not an option.
