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Ukraine: Round two!
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 05 - 05 - 2014


HUSSEIN SHOBOKSHI

The Russian President Vladimir Putin's continuous aggression against Ukraine is leaving everybody perplexed and completely bewildered in trying to figure out his end goals and how far can he keep going like this.
Putin believes that the new regime in Kiev is a “threat to Russian national security” and is “undermining the citizens of Russian origin and depriving them from their legitimate rights. “Based on that argument it gave itself the right to mass tens of thousands of troops on the Ukrainian borders while sending in small numbers of masked special forces to protect strategic sites” in cities where there is a significant number of Russian-origin citizens.
The West has had some response to Russia's annexation of Crimea and its continuous military adventure there. All were in the form of economic sanctions. They were symbolic in nature at best and hardly could cause a dent in the Russian economy or confidence for that matter.
Although the Americans and the West have made it very clear that these were merely stage one of a very significant series of “tough sanctions” planned ahead if the Russians continue to behave the way they do. Well, so far there seems to be no change of heart as far as the Russians are concerned, they seem to want to maintain the course of actions they have undertaken.
The most important thing to note here is if the Russians can get away with controlling Ukraine back once again as part of a bigger deal with the West, what kind of message would that be? Would China try and attempt to “take back” Taiwan and change its status from a “rebellious province” to “returned to the motherland?” That's merely one example of many other scenarios that could take place if the situation in Ukraine is left without a complete and effective solution.
One of the important suggestions which is being toyed around with is for Ukraine to join the NATO and therefore it comes under the protection of the world's biggest military force basically in one step. This move, however, might completely aggravate the already angry and hurt Russians, according to some skeptical political observers. The Russians see the Ukraine (as well as Belarus and Georgia) as a natural extension of the Russian empire and any intervention in it is actually an intervention in Russia itself. So naturally they cannot and will not be neutral about any developments or changes there.
The US and the West believe that Russia cannot afford the economic pains that come with very tough sanctions, which are being threatened with and therefore must “settle” particularly since the Russians have still a very aggressive and dynamic expansion plans for their economy and they would not allow or welcome any freeze or pause to it.
The next round between the West and Russia over Ukraine is decisive particularly in the long- term message it delivers globally.


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