Istanbul is once again seeing street protests against the government, although the demonstrations have not yet been of the anger and scale that prompted tens of thousands to take to the streets over the proposed destruction of a park at the heart of the country's commercial capital. Meanwhile, police have arrested the sons of two government ministers and the boss of a state-owned bank in what appears to be a widespread corruption probe. Given that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan built his own formidable political reputation through his clampdown on corruption when he was mayor of Istanbul, it might be thought that he would have welcomed the probes, while deeply regretting the allegations that had brought the investigators close to his own government. But if indeed it ever really was, this is no longer Erdogan's way. Rather than waiting for the police and prosecutor's office to do their jobs and the judicial system to try all the accused, the prime minister has plowed in and claimed that the investigations have been got up by outside powers intent on damaging Turkey's reputation. Referring to “plotters”, Erdogan as good as accused the United States of being behind the arrests. In an extraordinary move, the government has brought about the sacking and reposting of some 35 senior police officers connected with the enquiry. Such behavior has inflicted further damage on the credibility of a political leader whose increasingly imperious ways and intolerance of criticism are losing him support among senior members of his own party as well as in the wider electorate. Yet there remains a reasonable chance that if Erdogan does indeed run to be the first directly-elected president next year, he will win. His popularity has been based on the twin pillars of effective economic management and his reputation for spurning payola and cracking down on corruption. No doubt he is deeply concerned that the current police enquiry, which he is seeking to obstruct so crassly, could endanger his Mr. Clean reputation, because if the accusations are true, then financial wrongdoing has been occurring very close to the center of his government. However, since he is such a canny politician, Erdogan will also be concerned about something else which could have a far greater impact on his public standing. Turkey's current economic boom is coming to an end. Deeply indebted companies are looking at stagnant if not shrinking overseas markets, especially in Europe and North Africa. Banks are over exposed and the speculative flows from foreign indirect investors are drying up as the economic picture deteriorates. Moreover, government finances are once again biased toward short-term funding and the treasury continues to pour money into loss-making state sector companies that should have been closed or sold to the private sector years ago. As in so many countries, Erdogan's administration has been quick to claim the credit for an economic boom which in truth would probably have happened anyway. All his administration had to do was not interfere too much. The problem for the Turkish prime minister is that since he wanted to be praised for the upside, he cannot escape criticism for the downside, which in the view of many economists is about to strike home. Therefore, Erdogan could be seeking the presidency next year at the very moment that his government is mired in a corruption scandal and the wheels are starting to come off the Turkish economy.
