Ecuador's presidential election will go to a second round after a closely contested first-round result failed to produce an outright winner. The electoral authorities called it a "technical tie" after the incumbent center-right Daniel Noboa and his main left-wing challenger Luisa Gonzalez received nearly identical percentages of the vote. The pair will now face a run-off in April. The result is far narrower than opinion polls predicted, indicating the second round could be harder to call. The narrow result also dashed the hopes of Noboa's supporters, who had been buoyed by an early exit poll suggesting he might clinch victory outright. The president's supporters gathered in Quito, waving flags, donning T-shirts with his image and holding life-size cardboard cut-outs of the incumbent president. These cut-outs, depicting Noboa in various outfits – from suits to tank tops and sunglasses – have become ubiquitous symbols across the country decorating front doors, apartment windows, and even car rooftops. Noboa's presidency has been defined by his focus on tackling severe gang violence. He implemented emergency measures to deploy the military to streets and prisons to curb rising crime. Many of his supporters hope he will secure a mandate in the run-off to continue his security policies. "He's helped us a lot, from when there was gang violence so bad that we couldn't even go out," said Fernanda Iza. The 45-year-old added: "The support of the military he's introduced – their presence is already helping. "He has brought us a certain stability. There are many problems still pending, but I hope he continues with his plan." Juan Diego Escobar, 16, expressed optimism about Noboa's chances. "I think the majority of people who voted for other candidates will prefer to vote for Daniel Noboa in the second round," he said. "Noboa handles insecurity well. Crime is fairly well controlled. I think he will also improve the economy." Miriam Naranjo said despite being the incumbent, Noboa represented "change". She added: "We need the work that he has been doing so far to continue. It's only been a short time. We were expecting a bigger margin, so we have to work to keep that support for our candidate." Despite some successes, such as the capture of some major gang leaders and a slight reduction in prison violence, violent crime remains a major issue. Violent deaths fell in 2024 but stayed near record levels. In January 2025 alone 750 homicides were reported. Gonzalez – a protégé of former president Rafael Correa – has criticized Noboa for failing to deliver on key promises, such as boosting the economy, cutting fuel prices, and addressing violent crime. While she has proposed similar military and police operations to combat crime, her campaign has emphasized increased social spending in Ecuador's most violent regions. His critics also accused him of a slow response to a severe drought that led to prolonged power cuts last year. Noboa also sparked controversy during the campaign by refusing to delegate his presidential duties to Vice President Verónica Abad, citing an electoral law loophole. This decision became part of a public spat between the two. Luisa Gonzalez's supporters see her as a chance for change. Gonzalo Cajas, 46, said: "Why is there crime? There is poverty. There is hunger. So there should be someone who is really aware of Ecuadorian workers so that the country moves forward." Alejandra Tufiño, 42, added: "The country's security is in pieces. I want change. I'm not saying that she's going to solve it – but let's see what happens if we give her a chance." Some voters remain disillusioned with both candidates. Gabriela Cajo, 39, who backed a candidate from the party of assassinated 2023 presidential hopeful Fernando Villavicencio, expressed frustration with the lack of progress on crime. "Daniel Noboa represents fear, and we represent hope, change. We do not want a state of war, we want peace," she said. "I think we are all annoyed with the electoral processes in the country, and the last thing we want is a second round and more expenditure of resources. "There will be tremendous polarisation. There will be a lot of opposition to whoever wins. Once again, we will have to choose who is the least worst." Whoever is victorious in April will face significant challenges. Ecuador continues to grapple with rampant crime, as drug cartels battle for control of lucrative trafficking routes through its ports. Kidnappings and murders remain daily occurrences. The country is also struggling with high unemployment, a weak economy, and an energy crisis that caused blackouts of up to 14 hours last year. Noboa has pledged to address these issues by creating jobs, attracting investment, and increasing renewable energy production. Meanwhile, Gonzalez has emphasized the need for economic reform, social investment, and a stronger focus on tackling poverty. — BBC
