I love my soulmate Patricia, but she can be exasperating sometimes. She wants to camp in Tokyo waiting for the Olympics. She is desperate to get away from tempestuous leaders, deteriorating economies and an intolerant world. I told her, "I can muster money for just three days." Since then, I have been in the doghouse. Meanwhile, all the star-performers on the global stage, Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, Xi Jinping, Shinzo Abe, Emmanuel Macron, Narendra Modi, etc., will spend sleepless nights in a turbulent 2020. Many of these world leaders have long innings ahead. Sadly, many of them are mercurial and manage by expediency. There is a vacuum of visionary leaders like Lincoln, Churchill, Kennedy, Gorbachev or Gandhi, who provided a rudder and an agenda. The world is now a scrambled egg, pedantically managed, headed for a possible economic slowdown. President Trump will sashay into his second term, unless the impeachment proceedings maim his image. Expect a rancorous crusade. Trump should calm the trade combats. They create commercial commotion. Voters get nervous. North Korea and Iran will exasperate him. Boris Johnson faces tough times, despite his rosy majority. He will have to seal Brexit, manage Scotland and accelerate growth. Britain may have a squally 2020. Yet, expect Boris to waltz through. Germany's wise Angela Merkel is keen to bid goodbye. Her sagacity will be missed. Merkel should stay. Europe needs a knight in shining armor. All eyes were on France's Macron. However, protests at home will embattle him. Putin will grapple with the economy. He should focus at home; forget Ukraine and Syria. The desire to leave historical legacies has dented many leaders. China's Xi has reduced poverty and bolstered wallets at home. In 2020, Xi will manage trade scuffles, protesting Hong Kong and growth. The world is tying economic knots with Xi, but may want to know the plight of the Uighur Muslims. Bolsonaro's Brazil needs investment and infrastructure. It also needs to preserve the Amazon forest. Oil rich Venezuela will face turmoil. It should build bridges with Colombia. Latin America has struggling economies like Mexico, Argentina, Bolivia, etc. Hopefully, the continent will grow by two percent. Latinos love "samba" and "salsa". Now, they are losing their rhythm. The 54-nation African continent of a billion people will focus on open trade. Infrastructure, education and employment generation need attention. Nigeria is tearing apart tattered roads and building world-class arteries. Dubai, the marketing showpiece, will exult with Expo 2020. Expect the best in technology, fashion and service to be on display. Pakistan and India will continue to fret. Imran Khan will struggle to garner money to repay the IMF and manage Afghanistan. Narendra Modi will wrestle to generate growth, jobs and even credibility. Most of his election promises on growth, 100 new cities, infrastructure, etc., are flailing. Luster does not last without delivering digits. Myanmar may attract international disapproval for the Rohingyas' plight. Aung San Suu Kyi, may have to be more assertive at home. In a world where leaders are obsessed with their legacies and domestic endurance, economic growth will be bouncy. No global leader has a plan to rejuvenate growth. Everyone is busy protecting his turf to win the next election. The global economy will stutter at around three percent. We may even have demand-recessions in some countries, unless people start buying clothes and cars. Recessions terrify presidents and governments. It can send them packing. China was the world's factory, manufacturing everything from shoes to submarines. Now, orders are slowing. Tariffs by the US have dealt a body-blow. So, its GDP has slipped from 14 percent in 2007 to six percent. There are fewer Chinese girls buying Louis Vuitton handbags at Dubai Mall than there were a decade ago. "Our sales are down by about 15-20 percent," a salesman at a swanky mall in the UAE told me. The US has boosted employment, the best show in the last few decades. Trump has focussed on tax-cuts, deregulation, tariffs and reducing imports. Local production will get a fillip. The economy could grow at 2.5 percent. In another five years, American washing machines, refrigerators, televisions, etc., may be sold in your supermarkets. European countries may garner growth of about 1.5 percent. Britain will struggle to grow by one percent. Britain must fix Brexit. It has fractured the economy. Economies in the Middle East, Africa and Asia will also creep, since larger economies are crawling like tortoises, including erstwhile tigers China and India. India's GDP has declined from eight to around five percent. Unemployment is at an all-time high of plus-six percent. Regrettably, India has not captured the markets for skirts or electronic chips in the US, after the smothering of Chinese exports. Vietnam has scampered away with all the pastries. India is becoming a high cost, uncompetitive economy. The Philippines will revel with IKEA opening its largest store in Manila. Filipinas love shopping. Expect food to cost more by about seven-eight percent globally. Overall, inflation will reign at one to two percent in developed economies and six-seven percent in developing countries. Your salary will fetch less potatoes or chocolates. Since America commenced producing shale oil, global oil prices have been steady at around US$50 to 60 per barrel. Oil prices will principally be subdued at around US$ 65 per barrel, unless Chinese factories start roaring and demand augments. Whilst brick-and-mortar retail-outlets will suffer, expect online businesses like Amazon and food-delivery to flourish. Netflix, Amazon Prime and new entrants will tantalize the globe. Movie halls may worry. Stock markets will rise steadily; however, investors are wobbly. In a full-blown recession, share prices could tumble precariously. Interest rates may decline further. Government bonds may dance. Wise investors will hedge by investing in real estate and gold. Gold has shone steadfastly for the last 20 years. It will continue to allure; prices could hover around US$ 1,650 plus, per troy ounce. Expect 5G telecoms-networking-technology to revolutionize our lives by ushering in the "Internet of Things" (IOT); more information at lightning speeds. Digitization will make daily chores and businesses seamless. You will be able to commandeer the lights and toasters in your home, on your smartphone. Companies are researching making "chicken nuggets" and "meat slices" based on cellular agriculture and extracted animal cells. In an increasingly "instant" world, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, etc., will flourish. People spend hours connecting and chatting on WhatsApp, but are tongue tied when they meet. Youngsters are mesmerized by screens, not strolls in a park. Big-tech companies will face piercing government interventions globally. The internet has given youngsters 24/7 access to news, fact and fiction. They regard it as their birthright. So, if governments restrict this tool, as in Hong Kong, expect the young to rebel. Artificial Intelligence will analyze your X-rays and CT scans. Your cauliflowers and grapes could soon come from vertical farms, grown in trays, nurtured by artificial lights and baby-fed with water and nutrients. So, the world will not be short of food, when its population doubles to 14 billion by 2074. However, technology will never replace the tender care of nurses, as we celebrate "2020: Year of the Nurse". The world needs eight million more nurses. Uber will gather more momentum, even in small towns. Get set for your own private flying machines (cars), very soon. 2020 will be a feast for sports lovers. Tokyo Olympics and the Euro 2020 football championship will tantalize audiences. Tiger Woods and Roger Federer will defy age. Virat Kohli is on the way to becoming the greatest cricketer of all times. Hopefully he will shine at the T20 World Cup in Australia. The 25th James Bond movie should entice us with technological gymnastics. Year 2020 needs dedicated leaders, who work for commoners, across nations. Yet, never has the world been as fragmented as now. Never have we seen the vacuum of idealism as we do now. Technology has united the world. However, religion, race, color, caste, domicile, etc., are used by intolerant leaders to splinter people. Humanity is fractured. The partitions sprouting today will vanish, if leaders augment global growth to five percent per annum, instead of sowing discord. We cannot forsake our fellowmen, based on the color of their skin, religion, nationality, etc., for a few morsels of bread. The conscience of mankind needs to scream in 2020, like 16-year-old Greta Thunberg. I hope that in 2020 I can sweet-talk Patricia to visit the South Pole. Patricia hates the cold. However, I love the silences there. Let's see. Normally, I lose. Happy 2020. The author was the Managing Director of Unilever Tanzania and is an alumnus of Harvard Business School and John Kennedy School of Government. He can be reached at [email protected]
