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The Lost Opportunity
Published in AL HAYAT on 14 - 10 - 2013

The speech of the Moroccan monarch during the inauguration of the parliamentary session provoked a dual feeling of reassurance and apprehension. Indeed, as much as he trusted the deputies' and the people's input about the social problems featuring a structural character and obstructing the development of a city such as Casablanca – the Kingdom's economic and commercial artery – as much as he warned against the difficult situation affecting the Sahara issue, considering that securing the country's unity was the most prominent internal and external challenge.
Nothing new has happened at the level of the file that has brought tensions to North Africa and is almost entering its fourth decade without there being any solution on the horizon, to lead this region back to its days of concord, coexistence, and harmony.
The settlement of the Sahara conflict is not a separate issue, and the most important initiatives issued by Rabat – and featuring the signs of a political solution – were obstructed by the regional dimension of tensions that keep mounting. And when Mohamed VI honestly said that the issue "has not yet been settled," he is linking the difficulties to the positions of the other parties, without excluding at the same time the continuation of the escalation. At the very least, regional concord through the normalization of Moroccan-Algerian relations is in no way imminent, while the United Nations' efforts to resume the direct negotiations rounds will continue to be hindered by the negative effect of the concerned parties' divergence.
UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon had become aware of the risks induced by the tensions, thus calling for the hastening of the political solution, a signal which was picked up by UN Envoy Christopher Ross who hoped that the normalization of the relations between Rabat and Algiers would contribute to the emergence of a climate of trust. However, the Moroccan monarch expected further obstacles, choosing to describe the other parties as being "opponents," to point to the setback affecting the openness efforts and the failure of the negotiations course.
Hence, the situation returned to square one and the parties became opponents, as it is the case in times of caution and the loss of trust. What is odd is that the classification of the Sahara conflict – which used to be perceived as a chapter of the repercussions of the Cold War - has returned to the forefront, against the backdrop of the failure to reach a consensual formula to settle the problem. In addition, it has become difficult for the opponents to reach a magical formula, since no sooner does it become within reach that it turns into a mirage, like water at the edge of deserts, when the sand dunes and the glare of the sun come together in the absence of any oasis.
Mohamed VI once said that the Sahara issue was an existential issue for his country, not one related to the border. This was announced in light of an Algerian proposal submitted to former UN Envoy James Baker, featuring the division of the region as one of the possible solutions. Today, the Moroccan monarch is once again linking this case to the Moroccan people's consensus, to show there is no room for compromise when it comes to identity and existence. Was he extrapolating the expected developments connected to the efforts to activate the negotiations under the sponsorship of the international envoy? Or did he want to anticipate whichever talks by announcing that Rabat had its say when it put forward the autonomy plan and will not add anything to the commitment to the political solution based on the "no winner, no loser" formula?
In any case, the region's skies are filled with dark clouds, not the least dark of which being the fact that most of the doors leading towards a breakthrough were slammed by the winds. The Arab spring was relied on to achieve a major breakthrough in the wall of stalemate of the regional conflicts and disputes, and just like the paradoxes featured in it, the capitals of the Maghreb region wasted an available opportunity, especially since the years of introversion to arrange the domestic situations used stringency towards the Sahara issue as a cornerstone.
The pessimistic tone reveals that the situation has reached a deadlock. However, it might lead towards the beginning of a solution, as there are issues which only impose themselves when the conditions deteriorate. At the level of the Sahara issue, all the sides chose to coexist with the crisis for many decades, to the point where the facets of détente and tensions in North Africa have been linked for the most part to the developments affecting this conflict. Hence, it led to détente throughout the Maghreb space whenever Moroccan-Algerian relations improved, and increased the bleakness of the image whenever regional concord was absent. In the meantime, there is no doubt that the mission of Envoy Ross is growing more complicated, despite his wager that has become an expert on the Sahara passages due to the frequent visits to the region, passages whose facets are being altered by the winds like shifting dunes that are part of the nature of deserts.


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