Several Palestinians killed, scores wounded by Israeli airstrikes on Gaza    Worldwide coronavirus cases cross 162.12 million    Weather Forecast for Sunday    Tunisian Foreign Minister Discusses Situation in Palestine with Number of his Counterparts    Arab Parliament Warns of Danger of Continuing Deterioration in Palestine    Bahrain closes 7 restaurants temporarily for flouting coronavirus rules during Eid    92 commercial firms temporarily closed in Jeddah for flouting COVID-19 rules during Eid    Children bearing brunt of escalating violence between Israelis and Palestinians: UNICEF    King Fahd Causeway Ready for Passenger Traffic from Tomorrow, Monday    Saudi Arabia Calls for An Emergency Meeting of OIC Foreign Ministers on Palestine Today    Biden calls Netanyahu, Abbas as US president expresses concerns over loss of life Israeli strikes have killed at least 145 Palestinians, including dozens of children: Health officials    Dozen dead after two back-to-back tornadoes hit China    UN rights chief calls for de-escalation in Israel-Palestine crisis    Video of coronavirus positive Indian minister mopping hospital's floors goes viral    Bahrain closes 3 mosques for violating Eid Al-Fitr prayer precautions    Saudi Press: Saudi Arabia Requests to Hold Emergency Meeting to Discuss Israeli Aggression    Upstream spending, cut by $285 billion in two years, will struggle to recover to pre-pandemic levels    Inflation matters, but Fed policy matters more.    SITA marks a 25-year milestone in border management    Jordan Motorsport unveils route details for 2021 Jordan Rally    Remarkable collection of Syrian art transcends horrors of war: Arte Arta Gallery    Champions League final 2021 moved from Istanbul to Porto's Estádio do Dragão    Saudi, French officials release first details of Dakar 2022    Italy fines Google €102 million for abuse of dominant position    Prospects of preparing playgrounds in partnership with private sector explored    Organ donation a good deed, says Council of Senior Scholars    Tawakkalna Launches Registration Service to Donate Organs on its Website    King Salman, Crown Prince sign up for organ donation program    'Love & Inspire' art exhibition supports 'Smile' Initiative    GASTAT Publishes Flash Estimates of Real GDP Growth Rate for Q1 of 2021    Al-Falih: Saudi-Pakistani Supreme Coordination Council Opens Wider Horizons for Economic Growth    United World, ITC Sign Three-year Partnership to Launch Sports for Development    Citizen Account Wins UN WSIS Prize for E-Government Track    From whom do we take Shariah? How do we get legitimacy?    Sheikh Salman Al Khalifa: Saudi Football Association is distinguished and professional    Saudi Rower Hussain Alireza sets for 2021 Tokyo Olympics qualifiers    Asian Handball Championships' Draw to Take Place in Jeddah on Saturday    President of Union of Arab Football Associations Meets with Heads of FIFA, AFC and CAF    Business Lady Led Saudi World Competitiveness Edge, in Banana Planting    Al-Khawada Constitutes One of Khulays Governorate Traditional Dishes    Indian Community in Rafha Recalls Ramadan Habits    Welcome to beautiful Ramadan customs    Vaccination does not invalidate fasting, says UAE Fatwa Council    It is high time to correct wrong concepts about women's status    Council of Senior Scholars: Muslim Brothers' Group Don't Represent Method of Islam, rather only Follows its Partisan Objectives, Violating our Graceful Religion    Eid Al-Adha Prayer Performed at the Grand Holy Mosque    Pilgrims Perform Dhuhr and Asr Prayers in Arafat Holy Site    Senior Scholars Council Issues Decision No. 246 Regarding Attendance of Friday Prayer and Prayers at Mosques in a Case of Spread of Epidemic or Fear of its Spread    







Thank you for reporting!
This image will be automatically disabled when it gets reported by several people.





Slowing down as electric vehicles accelerate, oil demand set to peak at 101.6 million bpd in 2026
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 21 - 04 - 2021

The adoption of electrification in transport and other oil-dependent sectors is accelerating and is set to chip away at oil sooner and faster than in our previous forecast. As a result of this transition, Rystad Energy is downgrading its peak oil demand forecast to 101.6 million barrels per day (bpd), a pinnacle that will come in 2026, earlier than thought, plateauing before falling below 100 million bpd after 2030.
In our updated base case, which we call the "Mean" case, oil demand will be whittled away mainly by a growing electric vehicle (EV) market. Aside from the staggering takeover of EVs, assumptions across all our scenarios (low-case, mean-case and high-case) see oil demand being either phased out, substituted, or recycled across a range of sectors.
We forecast tectonic shifts — some sudden and others slowly evolving — in plastics recycling, a growing share of hydrogen in the petrochemical sector, and oil substitution in power, agriculture, and maritime sectors. Other sectors will still see thriving oil demand in the mid-term, such as trucks, maritime and petrochemicals, and aviation in the long term, where we see a sizable substitution of jet fuel with non-petroleum fuels such as bio-jet fuel, which is still part of the overall liquids products universe.
"Oil demand will evolve in three phases. Through 2025, oil demand is still affected by COVID-19 impacts and EVs are still slow to take off, then from 2025-2035, structural declines and substitution impacts — especially in trucks — take hold, and then finally, towards 2050, the recycling of plastics and accelerated technologies in maritime will be the final transition leg bringing oil demand further down towards 51 million bpd in 2050 in our Mean Case," said Sofia Guidi Di Sante, oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy.
Road transport (passenger vehicles, buses and freight), which makes up over 48% of oil demand, will be the ultimate driver of the transition. The swiftest transition is already well underway in the electric passenger vehicle sector, which currently makes up 6% of global vehicle sales, but will account for 23% by 2025 and then accelerate towards 96% penetration by 2050.
Trucks, which account for 18% of total demand, will not electrify in the short-term, but when the adoption occurs in the mid-2030s and begins reaching critical mass, the substitution impact will be much higher on a per-unit basis compared to smaller vehicles that use less fuel.
EV trucks will benefit from the technology groundwork already being established in passenger vehicles. Buses will also see a gradual transition from petroleum diesel to electric and biofuels. The EV truck market share will rise to 6% in 2025, 21% in 2030, and 61% in 2040.
Petrochemicals, which make up 14% of total oil demand, are expected to grow until at least the mid-2030s as plastics consumption per capita grows worldwide. The demand then peaks as plastics recycling rates converge towards 75-80%, as observed in glass and metals, from the current effective rate of 5%, at the same time as hydrogen-sourced feedstock picks up from less than 1% today to 30% of the virgin petrochemical feedstock for LDPE, HDPE, PP and PVC plastics production in 2030.
Maritime, which makes up 6% of demand, is expected to be dominated by oil for at least through the mid-2030s, after which we expect to see switching to LNG, hydrogen, electric batteries, and other carbon-neutral vessels, especially in newbuilds. This sector already underwent a big transition with IMO 2020, which saw the switching from high-sulfur fuel to ultra-low sulfur fuel.
Aviation, which makes up less than 7% of oil demand, is expected to continue to grow until 2050 as no viable oil substitution technology exists. The gradual introduction of bio-jet fuel will limit pure kerosene jet fuel demand growth but will not affect the strong upward trajectory in aviation through 2050, unless a viable alternative technology is introduced.
Other sectors (agriculture, energy own use, own energy use, industry, buildings, and power generation) continue a downward sloping trajectory. Growing agriculture and energy own use demand partially offset the accelerated decline of oil consumption in power.
Alternative scenarios
The scenario Rystad Energy considers as most likely is the Mean case. However, we also provide two alternative scenarios, a high-case and a low-case, which represent reasonable upside and downside probabilistic range from our mean case. All three scenarios are lower than our previous oil demand scenarios released in October 2020.
In the low case scenario oil demand peaks at 99.9 million bpd in 2024 and demand then declines almost three-fold to 38 million bpd by 2050. In the high case scenario, oil demand peaks at 103.4 million bpd in 2029 and declines more gradually to 76 million bpd by 2050.
"We expect COVID-19 behavioral impacts to spill over through 2025, as we see the work-from-home trend persisting even after the lifting of lockdowns, keeping downward pressure on transport fuels.
"Although oil demand is expected to recover above pre-virus levels, it will be just marginally. Any post-pandemic oil demand boom is tempered by structural declines that were already ongoing long before the virus, such as substitution in power, industry, and buildings," Guidi Di Sante said.
Our previous base case was released in October 2020 and was projecting oil demand to peak at 102.2 million bpd in 2028. Before COVID-19, we had called for peak oil demand of just over 106 million bpd in 2030. — Rystad Energy


Clic here to read the story from its source.