THE Puea Thai Party controlled by former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, ousted by the military in 2006, looks to have won a landslide victory in Thailand's general election, raising the prospect that the divisive billionaire could return home soon from exile. Three exit polls gave Puea Thai between 290 and 313 of the 500 seats in parliament after voting ended on Sunday, roughly double the number of the Democrat Party of outgoing Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva. Below are some implications of the win for the party and Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin's younger sister who is set to become the first female prime minister in Thai history. * The exit polls, if accurate, represent a decisive enough win to allow Puea Thai to govern without a coalition partner, making it easier to execute its populist policies. These include some that economists fear will be inflationary, like a proposal for a big increase in the minimum wage. n Such a strong public mandate also makes it harder for the military to intervene or for judicial intervention of the sort that has hampered other pro-Thaksin governments since the coup. n Yingluck, an experienced business executive but political novice, led a successful, disciplined and media-savvy campaign that surprised skeptics, giving some independent analysts confidence she could perform well in international forums. n She has called for a general amnesty for people who have been banned from politics. She says that is not a policy designed to bring Thaksin home from self-exile in Dubai but the scale of the Puea Thai victory could embolden him to return and face down his establishment critics. Thaksin faces jail if he returns after being convicted of abuse of power offences. n Prior to the vote, the army commander called on the public to vote for “good people” — implicitly anyone but Puea Thai — and the reaction of the generals to the result could be crucial. n Several sources say Thaksin's camp has been in contact with the military in recent weeks to discuss some form of post-election compromise. Puea Thai would be allowed to govern, with a defence minister acceptable to the military, and the top brass would be allowed to remain in place. n A Puea Thai government could also face opposition from other quarters. n The courts have significant powers to intervene under the constitution brought in under the military in 2007. In some cases a whole party may be dissolved because of irregularities by some officials. That happened with a pro-Thaksin ruling party in 2008, paving the way for Abhisit to come to power at the head of a coalition some say was stitched together by the military. n Thaksin has taken a leading role in Puea Thai's campaign, as its slogan makes clear: “Thaksin Thinks, Puea Thai does”. That may be deemed a breach of rules forbidding the involvement of banned politicians or felons. An anti-Thaksin group has already lodged a complaint with the election commission. n A Puea Thai government will have to make good on expensive election promises, such as an unrealistically high intervention price for rice and an increase of about 40 percent in the minimum wage. n The financial markets would have been happier to see a Democrat government, with one Oxford-educated economist, Abhisit, as prime minister, and another, Korn Chatikavanij, continuing as finance minister. n The outgoing Democrat-led government won plaudits from the International Monetary Fund and others for shepherding the economy through the global financial crisis, even if the protracted political crisis has caused reform to be neglected, notably in the telecoms sector. n However, the stock market may react favorably to Puea Thai's victory, since the size of its majority gives it enormous legitimacy and, if its opponents are suitably cowed, could usher in a period of political stability. * “Winning by a big margin would ease the problem of military intervening and make it easier for them to form the government and implement all the policies,” said Kongkiat Opaswongkarn, chief executive of broker Asia Plus Securities. “We expect a jump when the stock market opens next week and this is because it is a big win, with less risk of having the military meddling with politics.” n Some fund managers had remained bullish on the Thai market anyway, saying the fundamentals trumped the politics, but foreign money has pulled out since the start of May because of the risk of unrest, depressing stocks and the baht. n Chakkrit Charoenmetachai, an analyst at Globlex Securities, forecast the market would hit 1,070 on Monday versus the pre-election close of 1,041.48. “Foreign investors should be much less worried about the possible intervention of the external power.” n Despite the resounding vote of confidence from the electorate, a Puea Thai government could sooner or later run into resistance from the royalist, “old money” elite that was so opposed to Thaksin and his populist policies from 2001 to 2006. n The “yellow shirt” movement that helped undermine Thaksin and subsequent pro-Thaksin prime ministers — shutting down Bangkok's two airports in late 2008 and stranding hundreds of thousands of tourists —could take to the streets. n On the other hand, if Puea Thai is prevented from governing despite winning the election, the pro-Thaksin “red shirts” could launch another wave of protests. Analysts fear this would be even bloodier than April and May 2010, when the centre of Bangkok became a military “free fire” zone and 91 people were killed. __
