Barack Obama goes to the Group of Twenty summit after taking a hit over the Syrian crisis. It is no solace for him to see David Cameron had also taken a hit over Syria. Most likely, confusion will return to Obama when he shall shake hands with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was waiting for the strike and was certain it was going to happen, and only speculated over its date. Indeed, Erdogan, too, took a hit on Syria. The handshake between the master of the White House and the Caesar of the Kremlin will not be pleasant. The latter has taken pleasure in seeing the former confused over the Syrian minefield. Vladimir Putin went too far in hunting in the Syrian blood pool. He went too far, from the Security Council all the way to Homs. The planes pounding the opposition and the country are his planes. The sword paralyzing the Security Council is his sword. The former spy has realized an old dream: revenge against America that had destroyed the Soviet Union without firing a single shot and that has encircled the Russian Federation with countries that defected to NATO and the U.S. missile shield. The difference between the two men is huge. Obama has the image of an academic who adorns his discourse with talk of humaneness and major principles. Obama was elected to bring back U.S. troops from two exhausting wars that were accompanied by a ruthless economic crisis. So perhaps Obama wants to content himself with this image in the eyes of history, added to it the order he gave to take out Osama bin Laden and his Nobel Peace Prize. We can also add to this his disappointment with the ‘Arab Spring,' and the horrors that emerged after the fall of dictators. By contrast, the former KGB colonel seems to have a project for vengeance – vengeance for his country, its army, its weapons, its image, and its ability to protect allies regardless of their records. He has the last say in a democracy with teeth, after succeeding in subduing all institutions without exception, as well as the business class. His experience in crushing the Chechen rebellion earned him the ability to coexist with and hunt in blood. Putin took advantage of the Syrian crisis to direct punches at the master of the White House. He closed off the Security Council in his face, and manipulated the interpretation of the Geneva conference to expose the limits of U.S. power. Putin left Obama with no choice but to send the army to uproot the Syrian regime, which is something that the U.S. president does not want to do. To be sure, the cost of military intervention in Syria is very high, and the possible alternatives to the regime are troublesome. Thus Obama appeared to the world weak, hesitant, and wanting to back away from the Syrian fire, forgetting what he once said about Assad having lost legitimacy. Obama has had the misfortune of being forced to coexist with the river of blood flowing in Syria. The chemical massacre reminded the world of his previous statements about the "red line." Questions were strongly raised about the leadership of his country and the credibility of his pledges. Obama fell in the test he had long avoided. When the world held its breath waiting for the missiles to be launched, Obama detonated his bombshell announcement that he would be carrying out only a limited strike, and would request approval from Congress. He thus disappointed his allies and the Syrian opposition. The world fell into waiting for new dates. But it would be hasty to say that the United States has completely backed down. If Congress becomes convinced of the accusations of the administration against the Syrian regime regarding the use of chemical weapons and authorize Obama to act, the president will have a greater ability to conduct a bigger operation to weaken the Assad regime compared to the one he would have carried out without a congressional mandate. The president has committed himself to punishing the Syrian regime. Securing a mandate from Congress will help him go beyond the ‘cosmetic operation' to force the regime to go to Geneva. The same mandate will be a message to Russia, Iran, and other allies of the Syrian regime. But if Congress refuses to authorize the president to act, then the Syrian crisis will enter a new, different phase. Obama's inability to take action will raise deep and difficult questions among his country's allies. It is the right of an observer to ask: Does Putin want to move away from an obstructionist role to the role of peace broker? Is it possible to take advantage of the U.S. threat of military action to obtain concessions from the Syrian regime that would facilitate Geneva II? Is the Syrian regime willing and capable to offer such confessions? Does the regime sense the danger of what it could be facing? Does it realize that what comes after the chemical attack is not like what was true before it, no matter how confused Western capitals may be and no matter how long their action may be delayed? What about Iran, who is ever present in the Syrian arena and decision-making? Since the massacre in Ghouta, the world became preoccupied with two words: the strike, and Obama. Pending the debates in Congress, the name of the U.S. president will be uttered many times. Experts are calling for caution, saying that George W. Bush is not Bush, but that he is not Mother Teresa either. The direction of the weeks ahead on the Syrian crisis is dependent upon one man named Barack Obama. I know that the bettors are saying Obama, and that those who are disappointed are saying, Obama, Obama.
