Anyone who reads the interview with Nouri al-Mismari, the protocol official from the days of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, published in al-Hayat over six installments, about the atrocities and madness of that dictator, can understand his ultimate fate and how he was killed. One can understand the degree of hatred generated by this sick person's soul. It was the response of a people who had been treated with unprecedented disdain and brutality, and oppression difficult to imagine. There were also the insults, and acts committed against other states and peoples, and their leaders; these acts explain how those close to the regime split from its leader. These included people considered to be loyal friends, seen as the shadow of Gaddafi, and his keepers of secrets. Gaddafi's sick soul is the same thing that made him say, expressing surprise, when the rebels caught him: "What's going on?" It was a total denial of what he had done over four decades, and what was happening to him, up to the final minutes of his life. Anyone who reads and hears about, and watches on television, the atrocities committed by the forces of the Syrian regime, and the various massacres around the country, which have killed thousands in all areas, will not be surprised by the defection of President Bashar Assad's friend, General Manaf Tlas (and before him his brother, and father). Manaf Tlas was Assad's friend and confidante, just like Ambassador Nawaf Fares, and some senior officers who left for Turkey, while many others were waiting for the right moment to do the same thing. This was what happened with Abdel-Rahman Shalqam, Abdel-Salam Jalloud, Abdel-Salam Treiki and Abdel-Fattah Younes and others in Libya. The Syrian regime's atrocities include massacring people and disfiguring their corpses, annihilation and many cases of raping women. When the real figures are revealed at the end of the Syrian crisis it will be a precedent that will match, or exceed, the level of the massacres, especially in Homs. This will be sufficient to explain how a bodyguard of one of the members of the small circle of power in the regime carried out a bombing in the National Security building in Damascus, killing members of the crisis management cell that is running the bloody defense of the regime and its leader. Needless to say, Syria is different than Libya, in its political geography, strategic importance, mosaic society, ancient and modern history, and the make-up of the regime... as well as the position vis-à-vis the confrontation with Israel. However, these differences do not cancel out the common denominators of the dictatorship of the ruling group, and the sufferings of the people. Also, they share the same end when it comes to the confrontation underway between the people and various opposition groups: the regime will be unable to continue, whatever the circumstances. If it is silly to fail to recognize how Syria differs from Libya, Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen, it is also silly to fail to acknowledge that there are common aspects. Whenever the rebels in Syria make progress, the regime becomes more insistent on violence, committing massacres and using more destructive weapons, just as in Libya. The differences, meanwhile, confirm the same end that will result from this confrontation between the regime and the opposition. In Libya, the minimum level of unity in the position of the international community led to assistance in speeding up Gaddafi's end. In contrast, the international community's inability to act has delayed the end of the regime and Assad's stepping down. This difference distinguishes the Syrian people from others. The international assistance has been modest, and sometimes non-existent, in some rebel circles, showing the Syrian people to be determined and stubborn to a degree unprecedented in the history of revolutions. Never before have the various segments of an unarmed people taken to the streets daily over a period of 16 months, with no interruption, to demonstrate against the regime, despite the murder on a daily basis by the “shabbiha" and secret police. If dictatorial regimes share the feature of sudden, dramatic collapse, as in Libya, if a peaceful transition is impossible, the differences between Libya and Syria include the fact that the former saw a drop-off in countries' sympathy for the regime (Algeria) while the international community insisted on its departure. Meanwhile, Syria is experiencing the determination of Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, as evidenced in this week's speech by its leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. He expressed his party's continued support for the regime, until the final moment, amid the international hesitation and weakness in helping the opposition with practically steps, instead of merely taking political stances. The conflict in Syria could take the crisis, after the opposition's blow against the inner circle of the regime, in its crisis management cell, toward "Plan B." This requires Russian and Iranian support to see the head of the regime and its forces hole up in Alawite areas, between the coast and the coastal mountains. The influence of Moscow and Tehran in Syria enables them to take over the role of the crisis management cell, which was bombed, to extend the life of the regime until the west accepts negotiating with these two countries over their demands, in Syria and elsewhere. They might have to delay the fall of the regime before beginning with Plan B. As we await this, the allies of the regime might have to behave the same way, asking, "What's going on?"
