In a statement issued at the end of the biannual ministerial meeting held in Paris between October 18 and 19, the International Energy Agency, which represents the major oil consuming countries, warned of the dangers surrounding the future of global energy, especially the ability to secure adequate energy supplies to meet the overall needs of the planet's population in the foreseeable future, the high cost of the investments required to secure future energy needs, and also the extent to which new investments are in line with environmental standards. There are both real reasons and unconvincing ones behind these fears, fears that are in reality challenges faced by the entire world, with no difference in this between oil producers and consumers. At the end of October, i.e. tomorrow, the population of the earth will reach seven billion, and there are estimates that this figure will double and reach about 15 billion by the end of the 21st century. The IEA is mainly concerned by large fluctuations in the prices of crude oil, and by political instability in the Middle East (the Arab Spring). It is also interested in stability in Arab countries, especially in relation to their oil sector investments that aim at boosting their production capacities, as it is expected that Arab countries will supply 90 percent of the world's new oil in the next ten years. The IEA is concerned that the Arab countries may become focused on internal expenditure that is unrelated to developing production capacity, and has also expressed its concerns regarding the future of nuclear power generation in the aftermath of the Fukushima incident. These are all factors that render investments in energy even riskier, investments that the IEA estimates to have a value of 38 trillion dollars by 2035. The agency estimates that global demand for energy will increase by about a third between now and 2035, and that about 90 percent of this increase will take place in third world countries and emerging nations. The world population reaching seven billion is a reality that can neither be denied nor escaped. Of course, the issue is not only about increasing population, but also, and perhaps more importantly, about the improvement of the standard of living of many segments in the Third World. These segments, with their improving standard of living, have been using an increasing number of cars even in the same household, in addition to home appliances such as refrigerators, irons and air-conditioners, which all heavily consume electricity. The growth of the population to 15 billion by the end of the century, and the improving standard of living for hundreds of millions of them, will therefore translate into immense pressure on energy, food and transportation. Such is the march of history. Yet, history also tells us that man always strives to improve his social conditions, in tandem with the increase in his economic productivity, and this is not limited to one side of the equation. Rather, progress takes place on all fronts at once. This is the law of life. For example, farmers today, with their modern techniques, produce much more than in the past. In truth, the number of farmers worldwide is shrinking. Today, the United States has only about five percent of its population supplying around 300 million people, the population of the United States, with agricultural products while also exporting much of this production. Of course, it is everybody's responsibility to address the dire situation of the world's underprivileged people. This is above all a collective responsibility, and it is not reasonable that the rich continue to increase their wealth worldwide, while the poor suffer from injustice and deprivation caused by poverty. This situation is unacceptable and cannot be sustained, especially when the opportunities and capabilities to improve the conditions of the poorer segments do exist, while failure in doing so will lead us to wars and the tragedies that accompany them. We are not talking here about aid or charity, but rather about economic and social progress for millions, if not billions of people. This is the biggest challenge we all face, and at the same level of responsibility. So what does this mean? It means that all available scientific and industrial tools must be harnessed to improve the economic and social conditions for the broadest possible segments of the world population, without favor from anyone, or overblowing the challenges ahead. Evidently, this course is not an easy one, but the life that millions of people lead is not easy one either. The situation can be changed by changing the thinking that governs how major Western industrialized countries, on one hand, and emerging and developing nations, on the other hand, deal with each other. For one thing, we are still dealing with one another through institutions that were established after the Second World War, without any firm or serious efforts to change them, or more importantly, think of new ways to solve intractable problems. Instead, what is happening now is that we are patching things up as we go from crisis to crisis, without reaching new solutions that take into account the major changes in international economic relations, and in the political balances of power. Change is possible by using science to improve project economics. The same applies to the domain of energy. Today and in the next few decades, there is and will be reliance on the oil produced by Arab countries (and indeed, Saudi Arabia increased its production capacity to about 12.50 million barrels per day, while Iraq is working on increasing its production capacity to over 12 million barrels per day within this decade. This is while exploration and drilling operations in Libya are expected to intensify, in order to increase the North African country's production capacity to more than two million barrels per day, compared to around 1.7 million barrels per day before the revolution). Nevertheless, work is in full swing to explore oil and gas both in shale layers and offshore (at depths of up to six thousand meters below the surface of the sea, not to mention expanding exploration operations to find new fields, both onshore and offshore). For instance, massive and extremely important discoveries have been made in the seas off Brazil and Angola, and also in the Norwegian part of the North Sea, where the Aldous field there is set to increase Norway's output once again, after years of declining production (Norway's output fell from around three million barrels per day to less than two million barrels per day). In addition, a giant gas field in Turkmenistan has been discovered. There also are many promising discoveries made in East Africa, especially in Mozambique, Uganda and in offshore parts of Kenya. Based on the information currently available, oil produced by Arab countries will remain the primary source of energy worldwide. But this is not to say that Arab oil has no competition, be this in terms of oil discoveries made in other countries, or in terms of energy sources that are alternative to oil and that would gradually replace it. Even in transportation, the main remaining oil-consuming sector, there is a progressively increasing competition that is affecting oil. True, the overwhelming majority of vehicles in the world, which number around 800 million, rely on petroleum products. However, competition has indeed emerged, one that is both commercially viable and ecofriendly, and this is an important factor. The biggest challenge in the energy domain lies in using technology and promoting research and development, not to mention expanding dialogue between oil-producers and consumers so that it becomes possible to reduce the costs of the oil industry. *. Mr. Khadduri is a consultant for MEES Oil & Gas (MeesEnergy)
