When the former Nigerian president gave a brash prediction that Boko Haram would be routed in one month, most people sarcastically wished him all the good luck in the world, so sure were they that President Goodluck Jonathan needed much more than just his first name if he were to decisively defeat the Islamist insurgents. Since it began its insurgency in 2009, Boko Haram has carried out bombings of towns, schools and company installations, killing over 20,000 people and displacing nearly two million others. In particular, more than 2,000 women and girls have been abducted by Boko Haram since last year, according to Amnesty International. That would include the mass abduction of more than 200 Chibok girls in April 2014 which sparked global outrage. But Jonathan's bullish forecast has come true after Nigeria's military said this week it had freed at least 100 men and boys among more than 160 people during its offensive against Boko Haram militants. The operation came on the heels of an initial army offensive which freed nearly 300 women and children earlier in the week. While much of the credit for the most recent successes against Boko Haram must go to Jonathan's successor, Muhammadu Buhari, the wheels had started turning before Buhari's election victory in March. In February, Nigeria's military, backed by troops from neighboring countries, launched a major offensive against the Islamist fighters. It recaptured much of the territory Boko Haram had taken in the previous year, taking back 11 of 14 districts. So, Nigeria turned the tide against Boko Haram in just four weeks. The biggest reason for the huge turnaround seems to have been the collaboration with neighboring countries, mainly Chad, Niger and Cameroon, who have provided troops to help tackle the insurgents. Initial incursions into the Nigerian territories were made by the multi-national force supported by the African Union, which had massed in Cameroon. The Nigerian military also acquired new weapons sufficient to defeat Boko Haram. It brought in extra equipment from the former Soviet Union and South Africa. What most galvanized the government was the scathing criticism it received after it failed to stop the jihadists. Aside from the Chibok girls who have yet to be found, the government could not explain how it failed to protect the lives of 59 school boys who were slaughtered in their sleep by Boko Haram in Buni Yadi, Yobe state. It took the postponement of the general election, earlier scheduled for the middle of February, for the Nigerian military to make progress. With elections imminent, the government was racing against time to prove it had the capacity to deal with the intractable insecurity situation that has bedeviled the northeast, in order to get Nigerians to vote it back to power. Jonathan's plan ironically backfired. Nigerians did go to vote, but chose Buhari instead. Still, Jonathan's loss was Nigeria's gain. The government is now scoring a string of successes and with minimum casualties, the two recent offensives coming at the expense of the loss of just one Nigerian soldier. But Boko Haram's presence still looms large. Recently, the group pledged allegiance to Daesh (the self-proclaimed IS) which is operating in Iraq and Syria. This introduces a new dimension to the anti-insurgency campaign. And Nigeria remains fertile ground for Boko Haram which seeks to impose its brand of Shariah law in a country which is split between a majority Muslim north and a mostly Christian south. As such, there are searching questions about whether the recent success achieved by Nigeria against Boko Haram can be sustained.
