JEDDAH – EU energy consumption is set to fall despite strong growth in renewables, but the region's import dependency will remain near today's levels. BP said in its report “BP Energy Outlook 2035” that energy demand in the EU has peaked and is expected to fall by 6 percent by 2035. The region's energy intensity is expected to decline by 36 percent during the same period. Energy demand per capita in the EU declines by 8 percent and is overtaken by China in 2032. Its share of global energy consumption falls from 13 percent in 2012 to 9 percent in 2035. Demand for fossil fuels decline by 19 percent with losses in oil of 27 percent. Fossil fuels account for only 67 percent of EU energy consumption in 2035, down from 77 percent in 2012. Transport demand falls by 20 percent and oil's share falls to 87 percent as gas and biofuels gain. The EU's CO2 emissions will drop by more than a quarter as gas and renewables increase their share of consumption. Moreover, the report said EU's energy production fell by 5 percent. Given similar declines in both production and consumption, import dependency remains relatively constant at around 55 percent. The EU is overtaken by China as the world's largest energy importing region in 2030, but it remains the largest net importer of natural gas. Production of all fossil fuels decline in the EU, led by oil at a drop of 57 percent and natural gas at a drop of 46 percent. Imports of oil will decline by 23 percent but imports of gas will rise by 49 percent. According to BP, Russia will remain the largest net exporter of energy, satisfying 4 percent of global energy demand by 2035 since Russia's energy production and consumption will grow by 21 percent and 20 percent between 2012 and 2035. The country's share of global energy production and consumption will both decline slightly from 10 percent to 9 percent, and from 6 percent to 5 percent respectively. Russia will remain the world's largest primary energy exporter, with net exports of 736 million toe by 2035. Russia's liquids production will trail only Saudi Arabia and the US, the report said. Tight oil production will commence post 2020 and gradually climb to 7 percent of the country's total by 2035. Gas production will remain predominantly conventional yet will still be the second largest in the world. Fossil fuels will account for 84 percent of Russian primary energy consumption in 2035, down from 89 percent in 2012. Natural gas will keep the land in Russia's fuel mix, yet its share will decline from 54 percent today to 50 percent in 2035; oil's share will remain flat. Gas will also remain the leading fuel in power generation. Energy consumption in power generation will rise by 13 percent; energy use in transport by 49 percent. Oil's share in transport will go down from 94 percent today to 91 percent in 2035. Despite significant improvements in energy efficiency, Russia's energy intensity will remain about twice as high as the OECD average, reflecting an earlier stage of post-industrial development and harsh climate. Carbon dioxide (Co2) emissions will grow by 14 percent well below energy consumption growth. — SG
