Arab citizens raise constant questions about the future of oil, especially in light of important changes taking place in the energy sector. In this article, we will try to review some forecasts up until 2035, produced by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), as expressed by its Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri in a speech he delivered in Moscow for the occasion of the International Energy Week on October 28, and also according to the information sheet published by British Petroleum (BP). The conclusions below were reached through multiple studies by experts at OPEC and the mega British corporation. Badri summed up the findings of OPEC's projections until 2035 as follows: Global demand for energy would rise by 52 percent between 2010 and 2035, and alternatives like wind, solar, hydro, and geothermal would grow by 7 percent annually, thanks to government subsidies and incentives. But although alternatives have a crucial role in the future of the energy industry, their share in the global energy basket in general would remain small, and would not exceed 3 percent of total available energy sources by 2035. The reason is that these alternatives all have a very small base. OPEC also expects biofuel and nuclear energy to maintain a relatively moderate share of the energy markets from 2010 to 2035, forecasting them to grow by 6 to 9 percent annually. What is clear to OPEC is that fossil fuels (oil, gas, and coal) will continue to play the main role in meeting the global demand for energy, albeit their share will decline from 82 percent at present to about 80 percent. Throughout this period (i.e. until 2035), oil will remain the primary source of energy, although its share will decline from 33 percent at present to 27 percent. Coal's share will remain stable in the energy basket, at about 27 percent. The share of natural gas, meanwhile, is expected to increase from 22 to 26 percent from the total energy basket. OPEC also predicts that demand for crude oil would rise by about 20 million barrels per day in 2035 (relative to the current level of demand of 90 million barrels per day), and for the trend in demand for oil to change dramatically, declining in the countries of the OECD (i.e. the Western industrialized nations). Indeed, the growth in demand will come mainly from developing nations, especially in Asia (China, South Korea, and India). Transport, especially ground transport, will be the main source of demand growth, a trend that started back in 1980. This growth in demand will mean at the same time an expansion in downstream industries. This implies increasing refining capacity by nearly 20 million barrels per day by 2035. Most of these refineries will be built in East Asia and the Middle East. Badri also noted that OPEC is convinced the petroleum industry is ready to meet growing demand for oil, thanks to the large oil reserves available to it. According to estimates by the U.S. Geological Survey, gas and oil reserves that can be extracted worldwide amount to about 3.8 trillion barrels. The OPEC secretary general also praised the discoveries in shale oil and gas in North America, and said in this regard that these reserves add a new dimension to global oil reserves, despite the important questions they raise about the timeframe for exploiting these reserves. To emphasize OPEC member states' commitment to supplying the markets with their oil needs in the future, Badri said that these countries are developing or plan to develop 120 fields between 2013 and 2017, with investments worth $35 to 40 billion annually. BP's figures covered the period until 2030. BP predicted that global demand for energy would rise by about 36 percent until that date, with half of the increase coming from China and India, 60 percent of which from power plants. High prices and technological advances led to investments in non-conventional energy sources in the United States. BP expects shale oil to represent 16 percent of total oil supplies by 2030. North America is set to dominate production of this non-conventional oil, producing 72 percent of total shale oil and gas output by 2030. The United States will produce about 99 percent of its own energy needs by 2030, and China will consume more energy than the United States by around 2015. Russia will continue to be the world's largest exporter of energy throughout 2030. Its exports will represent around 4.3 percent of global demand for energy. Europe, meanwhile, will continue to be the world's top importer of gas. Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United States alone will supply the world with nearly a third of all petroleum liquids up until 2030. Demand for gas will increase more than any other energy source, with global demand for gas reaching around 456 billion cubic feet per day, mostly for electricity and industry. So what do these forecasts mean? First, oil will continue to be the main source of energy for the next two decades, while the rate of consumption of natural gas will increase to make gas the second most important energy source. Meanwhile, the United States will achieve a strategic goal that it sought for a long time, namely, self-sufficiency in energy. Finally, these forecasts mean that conventional oil, whose main reserves are in the Middle East, will continue to be the main pillar of global energy sources. * Mr. Khadduri is a consultant for MEES Oil & Gas (MeesEnergy)
