JEDDAH – Exxon Mobil Corp., the largest US oil company, said North America may be able to export 15 percent of its natural gas output and 5 percent of oil by 2040 as the region's production surges and demand stalls. North America probably will become a net energy exporter by about 2025, after importing 35 percent of its oil in 2010, the Irving, Texas–headquartered Exxon said in an energy outlook report released Wednesday. Asia Pacific countries may import almost 40 percent of their total energy needs by 2040 as demand increases. “After decades of relatively flat production, output of oil and other liquid fuels in North America is projected to rise by about 40 percent from 2010 to 2040,” Exxon said in the report. Meanwhile, “overall US energy consumption is expected to gradually plateau and then decline by about 5 percent from 2010 to 2040.” Technological advances have helped tap oil and gas from shale-rock formations, as well as extracting it from oil sands and deep-water prospects in North America. Monthly US oil production exceeded 7 million barrels a day in November, for the first time in 20 years. The International Energy Agency said in November the US is poised to surpass Saudi Arabia as a crude producer in the next decade. More use of gas instead of coal and increased output from nuclear and renewable energy sources will reduce US greenhouse-gas emissions, Exxon said. Carbon-dioxide emissions may drop more than 25 percent by 2040 to the lowest levels since the 1970s, the company said. In December, Exxon released a broader report with its global energy outlook, boosting its long-term estimate for worldwide demand growth to 35 percent from 32 percent as expanding populations in Africa and India use more electricity. The global economy is expected to grow at an annual average rate of 2.8 percent from 2010 to 2040, the ExxonMobil's “The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040” said. Economic growth, and the improved living standards it enables, will require more energy. Non-OECD countries will contribute slightly more than half of total economic growth over the Outlook period. China alone will contribute more than 20 percent of global economic growth as its economic output rises, on average, more than 5 percent per year through 2040. India, whose economy is about one-third the size of China's economy today, will grow at a similar rate on average, and will be increasingly important as a leading growth engine in the decades ahead. With increases in their working age populations, India and Africa will become two of the strongest areas of GDP growth over the next 30 years. Meanwhile, Africa's GDP is expected to grow by an average of about 4 percent annually, through 2040. Economic growth in OECD countries will be led by the United States, which contributes roughly 20 percent of the growth in the global economy. This growth is aided by the country's growing working-age population. In 2040, global energy demand will be approximately 700 quadrillion BTUs, or about 35 percent greater than in 2010. Global energy demand does not rise as dramatically as economic growth as a result of declining energy intensity, or the amount of energy used to produce a unit of GDP output. While energy demand in the OECD will be essentially flat to 2040, economic output will increase by 80 percent, the report noted. — SG/Agencies
