Global oil demand will rise more quickly than expected in 2010, OPEC said on Wednesday, increasing the need for crude from the 12-member group which meets to set policy next week. OPEC joins the US government's forecaster in raising oil demand estimates this week. Still, OPEC's outlook remains conservative and it is widely expected to leave output policy steady when it meets on March 17. Demand will rise by 880,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2010 to average 85.24 million bpd, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in a monthly report. The growth rate is up 70,000 bpd from the previous forecast. OPEC's report also pointed to a further rise in production from its members in defiance of agreed output limits, but it said the surplus would give a buffer later in the year when demand is expected to accelerate further. “The outlook for fundamentals reflects the traditional weakness of the current quarter,” it said, referring to the April-June period when demand usually slips for seasonal reasons. OPEC has kept its output target unchanged since announcing a record cut in supply in December 2008 as recession eroded demand. Analysts said the report did not alter expectations for next week's meeting in Vienna. “Is this going to change the fact that I expect them to roll over? Absolutely not,” said Mike Wittner, global head of oil research at Societe Generale. Oil prices were trading higher near $82 a barrel on Wednesday, slightly above the $70-$80 range many OPEC members said they prefer. Economic recovery OPEC now expects an extra 70,000 bpd of oil demand growth to come this year from Latin America, China and other parts of Asia. China and the Middle East will drive a non-OECD oil demand expansion of 1 million bpd, while demand in developed OECD countries is expected to decline by around 150,000 bpd, the report said. OPEC left its forecast for growth in the world economy this year unchanged at 3.4 percent. The report also raised the forecast demand for OPEC crude this year by 190,000 bpd to 28.94 million bpd, although much of this was due to reduced expectations for its own natural gas liquids (NGL) output. That is less than the group is currently pumping. Crude supply in February from OPEC averaged 29.35 million bpd, according to figures from secondary sources cited in the report. OPEC's 11 members subject to oil output limits pumped 26.811 million bpd in February, the report said. That represents compliance with agreed supply targets of just 53 percent, according to Reuters calculations. Adherence peaked at around 80 percent early in 2009, when prices were lower. The report from OPEC is the second of this month's trio of closely watched monthly forecast on world oil demand and supply. On Tuesday, the US government's Energy Information Administration increased its estimate for world oil demand growth by 270,000 bpd to 1.5 million bpd – almost double OPEC's growth projection.
