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Assad regime's disintegration continues
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 28 - 12 - 2012

The defection by the commander of the Syrian army's military police, Lt. Gen. Abdulaziz Al-Shalal, is yet another blow for the failing Assad regime.
Still in his uniform, with the impressive red shoulder tabs of his former command, General Shalal appeared in a video released after he fled to Turkey.
In this recording he condemned Syrian army troops for turning into “gangs of murderers”. For many in the Syrian opposition, coming 21 months into the uprising, the general's condemnation of the Assad military will be seen as too little, too late. Indeed, it may very well be that Shalal himself will have questions to answer about crimes that were committed by his own troops when he was in charge of them. Few will sympathize with his decision to defect at such a late stage in the conflict, when it is now abundantly clear that the Assad regime is losing its fight to cling on to power.
However, interesting rumors have begun to circulate suggesting that from the outset Shalal has in fact been working for the opposition. If these turn out to be true, then he may have played a key role. He may for instance have helped facilitate the deadly attacks that have taken place against top military echelons in high security installations, which were assumed to be safe from attack. In such circumstances, the general's flight may have been prompted by the realization that he was about to be unmasked as a double agent. Thus instead of being condemned for the lateness of his conversion to the rebels' cause, Shalal may end up being hailed as a hero of the revolution.
Whatever the truth, his escape to Turkey will only increase the concern and paranoia among the regime in Damascus. Assad and his top aides will be looking through the lists of armed forces commanders, and asking themselves who will be next to quit. Shalal will have boosted their unease when he said in his video statement, that there were many other senior commanders wanting to follow in his footsteps, to abandon their commands to seek refuge in Turkey. He pointed out, however, that such escapes had become much more difficult because of increased surveillance by the regime. No doubt his own flight was greatly facilitated by the fact that it is likely it was his own troops that were on watch for fresh defectors.
Damascus, of course, has once again dismissed the departure of a key senior figure as a mere aberration. Shalal had joined the uprising “to play the hero”, said an Assad spokesman, and anyway was nearing retirement. The bland assumption that any senior commander in Assad's bloodstained forces, should actually be looking forward to a well-earned retirement inside the cauldron of violence that Assad has created of his own country is of course laughable.
Less laughable are the dogged efforts of Arab League and UN peace envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, who was in Damascus again this week for further face-to-face talks with Assad. Brahimi must now believe that only military collapse will persuade Assad to quit, if he still has the breath in his body to do so. Therefore the most important part of his mission is to assemble the components for a peace, which will include all Syrian communities and seek to head off vengeful bloodletting, which would launch the new Syria on a bitter and unstable future.


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