CAIRO – President Mohamed Morsi now seems assured of pushing through Egypt's new, distinctly Islamist constitution – but by a margin slim enough to embolden his opponents in next year's parliamentary election. That could be good news for Egypt's nascent democracy and its battered economy if it encourages political rivals to fight their battles at the ballot box rather than in the streets, where clashes have alarmed both investors and tourists. Egyptians voted in favor of a constitution shaped by Islamists but opposed by other groups. Next week's second round is likely to give another “yes” vote as it includes districts seen as more sympathetic toward Islamists. Yet Morsi will have little respite as he braces for the unenviable task of winning public support for urgent economic policies to rein in a crushing budget deficit that are bound to be unpopular in a nation deeply divided by his actions. “The results of the referendum do not put an end to this state of polarization in Egyptian politics,” said Mustapha Kamal Al-Sayyid, a professor of political science at Cairo University. The Muslim Brotherhood's party said its unofficial tally for Saturday's first-round vote on a controversial constitution showed 57 percent of voters backed it, supporting liberal opposition arguments that many felt the document too partisan. Morsi's first attempt to implement tax increases, about a week before the vote, lasted only a few hours before he withdrew them amid howls of public anger, which his opponents exploited. His prime minister has promised a “national dialogue” to explain the government's determination to protect the poor, but Morsi cannot wait long as the measures are seen as essential to securing a vital $4.8-billion International Monetary Fund loan; it was delayed by a month immediately after his policy U-turn. Leftists, socialists, Christians and liberal-minded Muslims, freshly united in opposition to Mursi's Nov. 22 decree to expand his powers in order to push through the Islamist-tinged constitution, have capitalised on public anger over the economy. After liberals split their voter base in previous elections, the Brotherhood's party may still be counting on the opposition fracturing before the next parliamentary election, due a couple of months or so after the constitution is approved. “If the secular forces fail to be united, this will in the end lead to a greater gain for the Freedom and Justice Party,” the deputy leader of the Brotherhood's political party, Essam El-Erian, said. He also dismissed evidence of divisions in society as something present “all over the world”. But Islamists may find criticism starting to stick. Some Egyptians who voted Yes were not Islamist loyalists but instead were simply weary after two exhausting years of turmoil since military-backed strongman Hosni Mubarak was overthrown. Their slogan throughout the referendum build-up was a call for “stability” so that the economy could be put right. Those Egyptians, along with others who voted No, may be more receptive to opposition charges that Mursi is mishandling the economy and out of touch with the poor while he pushes through measures seen as favouring the Brotherhood and its allies. That is likely to be an increasingly fierce battleground as the parliamentary election looms. “The opposition comes out of this in a stronger position,” said Shadi Hamid of the Brookings Doha Center. “Morsi and the Brotherhood were hoping for a decisive victory to claim vindication. But they are not going to be able to do that. – Agencies
