Egyptians go to the polls today to vote in a constitutional referendum in which they only have to say either “yes” or “no”. But the implications of those two little words are dire. The plebiscite has proved hugely controversial, polarizing the public, and has basically degenerated into whether you want the Muslim Brotherhood, most of whose members drafted the constitution, or the liberal secularists who say the draft does not reflect the aspirations of all 86 million Egyptians. Recent fighting between supporters of the two sides has spilt onto the streets, several people have been killed and more violence could erupt when the voting starts. Given the Muslim Brotherhood's ability to rally its supporters to the ballot box, the measure is widely expected to pass. A vote for the constitution would have practical political benefits as it would shift legislative power, currently in the hands of the president, to an elected parliament. This distribution of power among the institutions so that it is not concentrated in one hand might lead to some political stability and might resonate with ordinary Egyptians tired of instability and worried about economic uncertainty. However, calls to widen the composition of the body that wrote the constitution were brushed aside. Nearly all its non-Islamist members resigned, after which came a rushed draft approval in a single, bizarre overnight session. This divisive referendum, even if won, risks damaging President Mohamed Morsi's ability to forge a consensus on vital policies urgently needed to save the economy. Egyptians are divided and confused, not helped by the sharp U-turns being made at the political level. In just days, several decisions were announced only to be revoked. The opposition was telling its supporters to boycott; now they are saying vote “no”. The vote was initially set for one day; it will now be two days.
President Morsi pronounced decrees last month which shielded his decisions from judicial review; this week he rescinded the edict. The army planned “unity” talks involving rival factions, then called them off. And the government announced a tax increase on at least 50 commodities, then withdrew the announcement the next morning. Such confusion is a clear sign of political inexperience and only adds to the uncertainty. Since the revolution almost two years ago, Islamists have won parliamentary and presidential elections and stand poised to see the constitution passed. For the opposition, the margin of victory is crucial. The constitution will be instated with a simple majority. However, if it is able to get, for example, 70 percent support or more, it will deal the opposition a mighty blow. Such a decisive defeat may fragment the opposition while Morsi will claim victory. This week the opposition launched several marches on the streets to persuade Morsi to postpone the referendum, without success. Actually, the protests were matched by even larger Islamist demonstrations supporting the vote. If the constitution is turned down, Egyptians will have to elect a new constituent assembly to begin the process of drafting a constitution all over again, with all the problems the first draft faced. Egypt is in the throes of its worst political upheaval since the uprising, with no immediate visible signs of relief.
