The landslide triumph of Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy in Mynmar's elections would seem to mark the beginning of the end of 50 years of brutal military dictatorship. The Arab Spring it appears has moved decisively eastwards. There are those however, including the Nobel peace laureate Suu Kyi herself, who have cautioned that this is not yet a total victory for a free Mynmar. She has reason enough to be suspicious. In 1990, the NLD won an overwhelming majority at a general election, which the military junta simply ignored. In the ensuing crackdown, Suu Kyi, who was honored by the Nobel committee in 1991, was returned to house arrest and many of her supporters arrested. The military continued to send out mixed signals about a return to democracy which reflected divisions among top generals. However in 2007, when economic troubles, due in no small measure to international sanctions, rekindled popular protests, the iron fist was once again revealed. Thousands of protesters, including Buddhist monks who had spearheaded demonstrations, were rounded up and detained. The following year, the military rulers displayed stunning incompetence and indifference when Cyclone Nargis hit the south of the country killing as many as 134,000 people. Rejecting foreign help out of hand, the regime failed horrifically to deal with the aftermath of the natural disaster, leaving tens of thousands to perish from hunger and disease. It is widely thought that within the secretive ranks of the military, a groundswell of anger among a significant group of officers finally convinced the junta that its isolationist policies and internal political clampdown were no longer sustainable. The UN was in the end allowed to bring aid to the stricken inhabitants of the Irrawaddy Delta. When in 2009 Suu Kyi was convicted of breaching her house arrest conditions, after an American mysteriously found his way into her home, her original sentence of three years imprisonment was extended to a further 18 months house arrest. Rigged elections followed in 2010 in which the government party claimed an overwhelming victory. But the impetus for change was building. The military ostensibly retired from politics and appointed a civilian, Thein Sein as president. He began talks with Suu Kyi which saw her own release from house arrest, produced the release of some, but by no means all political prisoners and led to the weekend's by-election for 45 parliamentary seats. It is clear that the main driver for this change has been the existence of international sanctions and the degree to which Mynamar has been cut off from the vibrant economic successes elsewhere in South-East Asia. It is therefore right that sanctions begin to be lifted in line with the democratization of the country and the genuine retirement of the military from the political stage. There are risks, but the generals were told clearly by the international community that Mynmar would be rewarded for liberalization and these assurances must be honored. __
