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Netanyahu's Eye and Obama's "Muscles"
Published in AL HAYAT on 25 - 09 - 2009

After the tripartite summit that grouped American President Barack Obama, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel might consider that it succeeded in preventing Obama from stretching his "muscles". This is proved by the fact that he replaced his call to freeze the settlement activities with a new call to "control the settlement activities" in the West Bank. Minister Avidgor Lieberman claims there is other evidence, which is represented by what he calls an unconditional dialogue, during the tripartite meeting, i.e. the failure of the Palestinian side to impose the freezing of the settlements before any efforts to launch negotiations.
While the second evidence is a mere flimsy claim and inflicts more damage on the Palestinian Authority in its conflict with "Hamas" in Gaza, the third evidence is presented by the US Envoy to the region George Mitchell who addressed a clear-cut message to Abbas, to the effect that his main demand regarding the priority of freezing the settlements is not the demand of the US Administration.
In fact, the same message goes beyond what the Israeli media described as Obama's “reprimand” of both sides. This message weakens Abbas once again in facing the approaches of Hamas, and most importantly, it weakens him vis-à-vis the maneuvers of Netanyahu, who emerged from the summit to announce that there are no preconditions to launch talks with the Palestinians. As Abbas knows, the Israeli prime minister realizes that the Palestinian Authority – which clings to being an absolute reference in the negotiations, is unable to give up, even on one overt Israeli pledge to freeze the settlement activities, before reviving a track which Lieberman believes will take a long time.
Years later, what has remained of Jerusalem, whose neighborhoods are swallowed up by Judaization? This was the question raised by the Palestinians who placed many hopes on Obama's principles for a "comprehensive and just" solution, and have realized that the hurry of the extremist Israeli rightwing trend to "Judaize" Israel changes the demographic realities rapidly, and thus they become measurable in months and weeks.
Netanyahu emerged from the cold tripartite summit with the least possible losses. He did not talk about a formula to resume negotiations with the Palestinians, but about the Iranian regime and its "flimsiness." He came out of the meeting reassured that Obama has retracted his demand to freeze the settlement activities now, and that the American muscles were not strong enough to throw him in the corner, and will not be able to do so. Washington, which is preoccupied with pursuing Taliban and Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan, is unable to wage a war whose results are not guaranteed. Washington, which is also preoccupied with arranging for its pullout from Iraq, cannot withstand a political confrontation with Israel, if it ever thinks of punishing it by forcing it to launch the train of negotiations with the Palestinians at least.
Netanyahu can claim a great victory in reducing the size of the American muscles so far. Responding to Obama's demand to send a negotiating team to Washington next week will only mean repeating the mission of George Mitchell in the Middle East. The difference however is the location, which should imply direct pressures by the US Administration.
Obama's eye is focused on the Middle East. Netanyahu's eye is focused on Iran, its nuclear program, and its regime. Therefore, he made a secret visit to Russia – whose secret aspect was denounced – when it seemed obvious that the Israeli prime minister is maneuvering all the regional dossiers. After the New York Summit, he repeated the same thing by attempting to switch the priorities: the catastrophe of the Iranian nuclear bomb if it fell in the hands of the "terrorists", and leaving the issue of settlements to the negotiations of the final status issues regarding the Palestinians.
As long as the American president insists on starting the final status negotiations now, in his support of the Palestinian demand, the question becomes about what Netanyahu is talking about, and whether Obama meant that the critical situation is to restore a fair reputation for the United States and his implementation of his pledges, when he described the peace process as facing a very critical situation.
Certainly, the political credit of the American president is eroded internationally. Among the reasons are the malicious maneuvers of Netanyahu which cover the consensus of the Israeli rightwing trend – amid the weariness of the leftwing trend – that the situation of the Palestinians and the Arabs around them is the best chance to wager on more weakness in the region. With it, the project of the Jewish State progresses, while the dream of the Palestinian State retreats everyday.
Once again, Netanyahu will try to confuse Obama to look for an answer for the dilemma of two priorities: Which is more dangerous: the Iranian nuclear bomb or the West Bank settlements? The problem of the American president in his critical situation lies in the fact that he is still at the outset of his first tenure, and that the path of confrontation with Israel is a long one.


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