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Geneva II: Dialogue Between Assad... And Assad
Published in AL HAYAT on 31 - 10 - 2013

The demand by the Syrian National Council (SNC) for Brahimi to be relieved of his functions, as well as the criticism by the opposition's National Coalition of the stances taken by the joint UN-AL Envoy, did not come out of nothing. Indeed, the man behaves as if he represented only the United States and Russia, and as if his job were to promote the agreement reached between these two countries. Furthermore, he does not take into account, when making statements and taking public stances, that he was originally appointed by the United Nations, whose the Secretary-General said that Bashar Al-Assad had lost his legitimacy and stood accused of war crimes and could no longer govern, and by the League of Arab States, whose overwhelming majority of members called for the Damascus regime to leave power, after having suspended its membership.
There is also a big difference between the role which the two organizations have invested Brahimi to perform, and the American-Russian agreement, which was the product of the Security Council's inability – due to Moscow's obstinacy and Washington's neglect – to reach a resolution that would put an end to the war in Syria. Indeed, the first signifies initiating a transitional period without Assad which would pave the way for the establishment of a pluralistic democratic system of government that would preserve Syria's unity and save it from fragmentation and the collapse of state institutions; while the second signifies endless procrastination and limitless maneuvers that would maintain Assad in power and overwhelm the proposed peace conference with pointless discussions that neither stop the bloodshed nor lead to the establishment of a new Syria.
And it does not make sense in any way for Brahimi to assert from Damascus, whose ruler had "honored him" with a meeting, that "only Syrians would decide their future", while at the same time calling for Iran to participate in Geneva II, considering this to be "natural and necessary", when the fact is that Iran is a foreign country participating in the fighting alongside the regime and backing its survival with funds and weapons. Indeed, Brahimi is thereby issuing "decrees" he was not granted the authority to issue, especially on the part of the Arab League. All that is left is for him to invite Hezbollah to participate in the conference, since it too is fighting alongside regime forces.
The Algerian mediator's efforts could continue to head in the same direction – with what this would include in terms of concessions in favor of Assad and his regime, including the confirmation of a "role" for it to play in the transitional period. He could also continue to provoke the actual opposition as represented by the National Coalition and drive it to boycott the Geneva conference – these stances being coupled with what he has heard from the "domestic opposition" affiliated to the regime about it refusing to participate under the banner of the National Coalition. Thus, this means that the conference, if it is ever held, will host a dialogue between Assad and those he has appointed as "opposition figures", among them ministers, cronies and followers – i.e. between Assad and himself. Most likely the "masquerade" of the dismissal of Deputy Prime Minister Qadri Jamil represents part of this obvious game of fabricating opposition figures who do not represent their people, and whose only role is to show the opposition to be divided and incapable of taking unified political stances – while the regime's security apparatus works on trying to create a rift within it on the battlefield and drive it to infighting.
And if, during the Friends of Syria meeting in London, the Syrian opposition finally managed to obtain the agreement of the United States on Assad not playing any role in the transitional period, then in whose name is Brahimi speaking? That is unless he is certain that the Americans do not mean what they say, and are trying to "bribe" the opposition with reassuring statements while coordinating with the Russians, who offered them, along with Israel, Assad's chemical arsenal on a silver platter in exchange for keeping him in power.


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