How do you see the situation in the town of Qusayr? - The issue is bigger than Qusayr and Syria itself. Do you expect the Geneva II meeting to succeed? - The fundamental issue is not listed on its agenda. But is the course of the fighting in Syria not significant and does it not carry important implications? - Do not make the mistake of drowning in the daily details in Syria. They are no longer important in and of themselves. It is a theater for a confrontation that is bigger than Syria. It will continue to stumble in its own blood. The former Syria, which was a major actor in the region's issues, is gone. Its strength lay in the cards it once controlled on others' soils. Syria lost those cards and the game has been tipped on its head. Syria became a playfield having once been a player. Both nearby and faraway countries now control their own cards in the Syrian arena. Is there some hyperbole in this assessment? No. You can say that the Syrian regime has already fallen. What is left of it does not resemble at all what once stood. Look at the Syrian territory today: an armed opposition is trying to topple the regime, which controls only a part of the territory. On Syrian territory as well, there are Sunni fighters who came from Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, the Gulf countries, and even Chechnya to topple the regime, which has sought the help of Shia fighters from Lebanon, Iraq, and Iran. Despite all this, I tell you that the fundamental issue is not Syria. What is the fundamental issue? - It is the Iranian thrust which has reached the Mediterranean and stationed along its shores and along Israel's borders, and is now resisting the attempt to sever the artery that guarantees it permanent residence there. This thrust is the fruit of an investment that is more than three decades old, and which has cost billions of dollars. Do you believe that Iran wants to expel the United States from the Middle East? - No. But Iran wants to be the top player in the region and wants the United States to recognize this and the consequences and privileges that come with it. Do you expect the two sides to reach a deal? - No. The problem has to do with Israel. The heirs of Khomeini want to curtail the role of Israel, and encircle it and shake its image and stability, so that they can have the final say in the region. The July War in Lebanon falls in this context. What are the reasons for Iran's strength? - It is a large, cohesive, and stable power, with a daily program for the region for which it devotes all its resources, even at the expense of internal development. Iran's strength is also due to the fact that it has become and internal force in a number of countries. It has an army armed and financed by it in Lebanon. It has a similar army in Syria and Iraq, and I do not mean the regular armies there. We must also never underestimate the progress made by the theory of velayat-e faqih (i.e. of rule by guardian clerics) among Shiite Arabs. Practically speaking, the opponents of Nuri al-Maliki were not able to topple him because Tehran had objected. The same thing applies to Bashar al-Assad. Iran expelled Saad Hariri from the premiership and no government can be formed in Lebanon without its approval. Practically speaking too, Iran replaced the Baathists in Iraq and Syria, the Syrian role in Lebanon, and is now deeply entrenched in the three countries. Iran can postpone the moment at which it desires to acquire a nuclear bomb, but cannot accept to sever the lifeline from Tehran to Beirut, through Baghdad and Damascus. What are Iran's weaknesses? The Western concerns about its thrust. Its collision with a Sunni wall rejecting its dominance. Also, the current sanctions, which have severely hurt its economy. Iran may collapse one day under the weight of its many foreign obligations, similar to what happened to the Soviet Union. Incidentally, I do not ignore the role of Russia, but in the end it is a foreign force that cannot infiltrate the structure of these communities, like Iran has been able to do. How do you read Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah's last speech? In the context of the battle to defend the Iranian thrust, which I hope will not deteriorate into an open-ended Sunni-Shiite war in the region or the partitioning of Syria. It is for this reason that I told you forget Syria, and seek to understand the region starting with the big issue there instead. I can also tell you to forget Lebanon, even if it were to stumble in its own blood.
