He said, “What is happening in Syria is much more serious than what happened in Baghdad a decade ago. The nature of the conflict there is different and more complex, and the region is more fragile than it used to be, on the day the regime of Saddam Hussein was overthrown. In Baghdad, America was firm and aggressive. In Damascus, America is cautious, hesitant and soft. In Baghdad, Tehran stood to benefit from the fall of Saddam and was preparing to reap the fruits of his absence. In Damascus, Tehran is locked in a confrontation as though defending its project, its role and its prestige there. The region will change out of Damascus, and not Baghdad." He continued, “Arab safety valves are inexistent. Morsi's Egypt is mired in turmoil. Maliki's Iraq is slipping back into a crisis of components. Assad's Syria is the theater of a fierce battle that is a combination of revolution, internal fighting, a regional standoff, and international impotence. In light of these facts, one can only expect the worst." I was struck by the words of the Arab official so I asked him to elaborate. He said that the most dangerous aspect of the Syrian situation was the inability of anyone to retreat. The opposition cannot backtrack after nearly 100,000 dead, and with devastation so extensive it will require up to $ 100 billion to overcome. The regime too cannot backtrack, after all that it perpetrated. Moreover, the regime hinges on Bashar al-Assad personally. For this reason, Lakhdar Brahimi returned empty handed from Damascus, as soon as he approached the “taboo area." The official reckoned that the failure of Brahimi's last visit reinforced the conviction among Assad's opponents, both at home and abroad, of the need to introduce major modifications to the balance of power on the ground. This simply means a new round of financing and arming. Damascus is heading towards a major battle that will produce even more victims, destruction and waves of refugees. The official went on to say that Russia, which has gone very far in supporting the Syrian regime, is finding it difficult to backpedal from its position. Furthermore, the real key is in Tehran, not in Moscow. Iran is behaving as if the fall of the Syrian regime is a catastrophe, not just a loss. For this reason, Iran is throwing all its weight in the raging conflict. It realizes that its exit from Syria would undermine its presence in Iraq and Lebanon, and shake its image at home. The relationship with Assad's Syria is the largest and longest Iranian investment in the region, and indeed the costliest. Severing the Syrian limb from the edifice extending from Tehran to Beirut through Baghdad would mean that Iran has lost the battle for the role. And this is more important than the nuclear bomb, which can protect the role but which may be impossible to produce. Hezbollah cannot backtrack either. The fall of the Syrian regime will relegate its standing to one of a local player, having once been a major regional one. The fall of the Syrian regime will also mean that the Mumana'a [pro-resistance] camp will lose its Arab depth that was once provided by Syria. The official drew my attention to what he considered a very dangerous development. Rebel military leader Major General Salim Idris threatened to hold Hezbollah accountable “sooner or later." He also said that his fighters will deal with Hezbollah's militants in the Homs region as mercenaries and not as prisoners of war. Anyone who examines the map will soon realize the seriousness of this proclamation, and that Syrian-Lebanese relations and Sunni-Shia ties are likely to face a difficult test if the regime falls. The official said that the “most difficult chapter" of the Syrian crisis was now fast approaching. If the regime manages to hold a part of Syria, then this means the threat to the regime will become a threat to the borders themselves. If the regime is ousted with a knockout blow, then this will give us a Syria that will be unstable for years. Meanwhile, any entrenchment by al-Qaeda on Syrian territory will be dangerous in the extreme. All scenarios therefore confirm that Damascus is more dangerous than Baghdad. I was struck by the words of the Arab official, who did not fail to ask me about the incidents in Arsal in the Bekaa Valley.
