Everyone seems to be optimistic regarding the outcome of the national dialogue in Bahrain. I asked one former and one current Bahraini minister as well as Bahraini citizens about their first impressions. They told me that all the dialogue participants spoke in a positive manner to the extent that the representatives of the pro-government forces were surprised with the high level of this positivity. I hope that my [Bahraini] friends will not be disappointed by me saying that, following the incidents on February 14, 2011, I saw the Crown Prince Salman Ben Hamad who was quite optimistic on reaching a near agreement with the opposition. He told me about the number of demands that the government had decided to meet and the reforms that will be implemented. However, the subsequent events showed that the majority of the opposition was loyal to Iran and aspires for no reforms, but rather for a coup against the ruling regime. Perhaps, the two years that elapsed during which the opposition failed to make any achievements except for additional problems and confrontations were sufficient to convince the opposition that, if it were to insist on obtaining everything, it would end up with nothing. The opposition might have realized that if it was to take what it can get now, it might be able to negotiate its other demands in the future. I have always said and am hereby reiterating that the opposition has some rightful demands. My main objection concerns the means followed by the opposition to achieve these demands, which ended up by failing just like I had expected. The dialogue is still at its beginning and I do not need to delve into the details. I will only say that the different participants agreed that they are having a dialogue rather than negotiations; that the government is part of the discussion; and that the outcomes will consist of decisions that the Minister of Justice, Sheikh Khaled Ben Ali al-Khalifa, will be transmitting to the King. The most important part of the dialogue is that it includes active political parties such as the coalition of the pro-government political organizations headed by Ahmad Jomaa and including governmental representatives; and the five political opposition groups: Al-Wifaq, Waad, the Progressive Platform, Al-Ikhaa, and the National Assembly. Perhaps the fact that Hassan al-Mushaymeh and his group, Haqq, are not represented in the dialogue is a blessing. He is the only oppositionist whose jailing I support because he is reckless and follows radical politics operating for the destruction of Bahrain. There were no major differences during the opening and second sessions. The Shi'i opposition asked for the presence of constitutional experts around the dialogue table in order to formulate the agreements. It also asked for accepting the support of the United Nations as per the offer of Secretary General Ban ki-Moon. The government did not seem very keen about that. Most importantly, the concerned parties, including the pro-governmental Sunni forces and the opposing Shi'i forces, seemed to have a real desire to solve the crisis that created a rift among the Bahraini people, one that must be fixed in order to restore the national unity. There are differences indeed, and they have been in place even before the breaking of the problems two years ago. The most tangible example of the existence of differences consists of the Personal Status Law, which includes a Shi'i part and a Sunni one. The Shi'i groups want this law to comply with the Faqih rule, i.e. they want to allow the marriage of minors. Nevertheless, one can say that the problems in Bahrain over the past two years have highlighted the differences and overshadowed some important advantages. Bahrain is the country with the least amount of natural resources among the six GCC states. However, the ruling regime still manages to offer free services to its citizens including education, healthcare, and housing. When the problems started, I wrote pieces where I criticized the American Administration and the Human Rights groups for being duped by the opposition's claims and for believing that the opposition really wants reform and democracy while its leaders were actually working to stage a coup against the regime. One must only listen to the chants of the oppositionists during the Friday protests two years ago. I condemn the killing of any protestor. I condemn the police but I also condemn the extremists who have no conscience and who are sending off their teenage children to be killed in the protests just so that Iran's agents would be able to bargain on their blood. I think that the American Administration – which is quite keen on preserving stability in Bahrain since its fifth flotilla is present there – has recently decided that the opposition is lying, and that it is working on staging a coup and establishing a regime that is affiliated to the Faqih rule just like Iran. Thus, the American Administration halted its support for the demands of the opposition. Once again, the opposition does have some rightful demands. I heard the Crown Prince as well as King Hamad Ben Issa stressing that the government is planning on meeting the opposition half way. I hope that the opposition has learned its lesson over the past two years; that it has realized by now that it cannot ask for the impossible; and that it is really aspiring for a solution in favor of its supporters and the entire Bahraini population. [email protected]
