Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki has tried to establish relations with clan leaders in Mosul, Anbar, Nineveh and Kirkuk, in order to confront the Kurds who are demanding the annexation of “disputed territories" with a unified Arab stance, paying no heed to the Kurdish-Shiite alliance that has existed since before the invasion of Iraq and still stands today. Yet his attempt has faced obstacles, some of them connected to Iraq, others having a regional dimension, and all of them forming the polemic of the domestic and the foreign, prevalent in the Middle East. In terms of the domestic Iraqi dimension, the blow dealt by Maliki to Muqtada Al-Sadr's militias (the Mahdi Army) years ago did not lead to clearing him of the charge of implementing Iranian plans to make of Iraq a zone of influence for Tehran, as well as a bridge connecting it to Syria, Lebanon and Palestine. And despite his attempts to return former officers to service in view of the army's need for their experience (a few hundreds of them have returned), he remains accused of being too radical in uprooting the Baath Party and throwing hundreds in prison on charges of terrorism. He is also accused of besieging prominent figures of political Islam (the Muslim Brotherhood), as represented by Vice President Tariq Al-Hashimi, who was sentenced to death on charges of terrorism, fled to Kurdistan and then to Turkey, and now resides, along with many members of the Muslim Brotherhood, in Qatar. Another step taken by Maliki to confront Kurdish ambitions of independence has been to stand up, along with his government, to the monopoly of the Northern province on its oil resources, and to insist on it sharing the North's oil revenue with Baghdad. Yet he has been faced with the inflexibility of the leader of the province, Massoud Barzani, with the heedlessness of the Arabs, both Sunnis and Shiites, and with most of their leaders siding with the Kurds. Thus the latter joined with the Iraqiya List and with Muqtada Al-Sadr to issue him a vote of no confidence and topple his government in Parliament, each of them for their own considerations. Indeed, Barzani seeks to remove an obstacle to his ambitions; the Iraqiya wants to return to power; and Muqtada Al-Sadr wants to take revenge, to display his independence and his strength among the Shiites, and to appear as a popular leader cutting across the spectrum of sects and political parties. Yet their attempt has failed. Sadr himself caused it to fail, by an intervention from Iran, which he not neglect to confirm and reject publicly, backing down nonetheless on his pledge to his “allies", Kurdish leaders and the Iraqiya List. And it was not Sadr alone who caused the vote of no confidence against Maliki to fail. Indeed, President Jalal Talabani played a major role in this respect when he refused to send the signatures of the MPs demanding the Prime Minister's resignation to Parliament. Moreover, Kurdish MP Mahmoud Othman, with his habitual candor, made clear that Maliki's resignation was out of the question at the moment, as “there are international mediations, to which Iran, the United States and Turkey are party". After wars flared up, regional stances evolved, and while Tehran and Washington continued to support Maliki, Turkey took a stance against him, and encouraged the Kurds to be stringent in confronting the federal government. It began to deal with them as if they were an independent state (examples of this include Ahmet Davutoğlu's visit to Kirkuk without Baghdad being notified, as well as the ratification of agreements with Barzani that violate the Iraqi Constitution), showering them with promises of joining the regional alliance against the Syrian regime – and, in their plans, the fall of this regime would lead to dividing Iraq and to them having a prominent role in reshaping the “New Middle East" on sectarian bases, a process out of which the Kurds of Syria and Iraq would emerge from among the victors. The United States, for its part, has maintained its stance. Indeed, despite expecting the fall of Bashar Al-Assad and the spread of chaos in the region, it is trying to preserve its “accomplishment" in Iraq. This is why it meets with Iran in supporting Maliki and calls on Iraqis to settle their differences through dialogue, with its representatives overseeing negotiations between the central government and Kurdistan Province. Maliki is now waging his battle against Turkey, with support from Iran and the United States. His remaining in power is contingent on such support, on the development of the situation in Syria, and on his ability to keep rebel areas away from Turkey's plans.
