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Has Yemen entered the "Intensive Care Unit"?
Published in AL HAYAT on 10 - 08 - 2009

The situation in Yemen is not pleasant. Yemen is between the hammer of many exciting challenges and the anvil of various internal crises. Problems are worsening. Ignorance rates are on the rise. Kidnapping rates continue to increase. Terrorism besieges the government and the people. The country has been lately witnessing riots, vandalism, and bloody confrontations. Southerners are calling for secession, and the northern Houthis are rebelling against the regime. Members of Al-Qaeda come back from Afghanistan and Iraq, fleeing from Saudi Arabia and Syria and Egypt to stay in rugged mountains and difficult locations that help them plan for new terrorist strikes both at home and abroad.
Will Yemen go back to divisions and secession after the "move" of the southern leaders?! Are there economic and social and political reasons triggering the domestic events and nurturing the justifications of the protestors in demand for secession after they accepted unity?! Will Al-Qaeda push the armed movements in the country to what can be described as "Somalization" or "Iraqization"?!
Yemen is facing political, security and economic challenges. There are conflicts with neighboring African countries thanks to the unstable situations in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Eritrea, let alone the economic and humanitarian challenges under the current circumstances. There are signs indicating that Yemen is likely to become an arena for global struggle and conflict after members and supporters of Al-Qaeda and other hardline groups managed to position themselves inside Yemen, in addition to the insurgency of the Houthis and their reliance on the Iranian support and the tribes' overt announcement that they are bearing arms and kidnapping tourists, thus disregarding the rule and legislations of the state.
In Yemen, analyses and diagnoses of what is going on the ground are numerous, according to the goals of each side – be it in the government, the opposition, the insurgents, or the secessionists. But these justifications will not put forth solutions that help the country overcome its crises. Rather, they will put more pressures on it and lead to divisions of "undesirable" consequences.
The current situation in Yemen might not have placed the country so far in the Intensive Care Unit, but the conditions are deteriorating and moving toward fragmentation. The situation is on the brink of a huge explosion after the tone of the southerners calling for secession escalated and after the Houthis became more powerful, in addition to the threats of Al-Qaeda. This has put a heavy burden on the government that is required to move to contain the seriousness of the situation through finding urgent rather than long-term solutions.
The Yemeni Government should study the situations and reasons that led to the increase of the insurgent movements and the calls for secession. It should also benefit from the lessons of the past, so as to find appropriate solutions that help the government of President Ali Abdallah Saleh call for consensual solutions, whether they come in the form of a full package or gradually. These solutions are meant to remove the signs of internal explosion and influence the security of Yemen and the safety of its people.
Perhaps the first solution is dialogue, which is a pressing need amidst the repercussions of the various crises, their secession consequences, and the conspiracy-related domestic challenges in the north and the south. Therefore, the Yemeni Government should put forth an appropriate political vision according to a clear agenda that determines the controversial issues and the parties of the dialogue. Moreover, dialogue should not only be restricted to the previous two parties, the ruling party, the General Popular Conference, and the parties of the "joint meeting", after the current situation has imposed two new parties who are the Houthis in Sa'ada and the leaders of the "movement" in the South.
Ignorance, illiteracy, unemployment, the tribe's overlooking of the laws of the state and their failure to abide by its customs and arms, as well as the poor education and security apparatuses, still altogether represent key challenges in Yemen's crises, not to mention the "lack of trust" between the government and the opposition, which further complicated the situation and depleted the state. Here, the government is held responsible for what is taking place, especially since it received over the past years huge financial aid from the Gulf States to build a strong economy and education system for the purpose of human development first and foremost.
I believe that the neighboring Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, should contribute to "resolving" the crises of its neighbor Yemen before the situation blows up. They should interfere to back the solutions agreed upon by the government and the opposition, ones that secure the joint interests. In the end, unsteady and unstable situations in a united Yemen will influence directly or indirectly the security and stability of all the Gulf States, even if they fortify their border and shut down their access points.


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