On Sunday, 22 April, French President Nicholas Sarkozy will learn if he has any hope of a second term during the second round of presidential elections in France, on the 6th of May. The majority of opinion polls in France show that four days before the first round, the Socialist candidate, Francois Hollande, is leading Sarkozy by one point, while some show them even, with about 27 percent each. The polls also say the total votes for the left, which includes Hollande, radical Jean-Luc Melenchon, and the Greens' Eva Joly, will swing to Hollande in the second round, while the votes of right-wing and centrist candidates Marine Le Pen and Francois Bayrou might not go to Sarkozy. As for the second round, all of the polls show Hollande defeating Sarkozy by a tangible margin. For a while now, the political indicators in France have given the impression that the election would be decided in Hollande's favor, despite recent statistics showing that one-quarter of the voters remain undecided, and that half of them have changed their minds about the coming election. Certainly, any surprise is possible, but as things appear now, and with the climate in media circles and even official circles, it seems that Sarkozy will not win a second term. The prevailing feeling in ruling right-wing circles is one of nearly preparing for a loss, as Hollande's circles have begun to distribute the various ministerial posts among his supporters. On Tuesday, there was news that former President Jacques Chirac and his daughter Claude and her husband, the former secretary general of the presidency, will vote for Hollande; Claude has been seen having lunch with Hollande's friend Valerie Trierweiler, while her mother Bernadette has openly supported Sarkozy. During a radio interview, Sarkozy was asked about Chirac's voting for Hollande, and answered "leave Chirac out of the speculation; he's having health problems, and we don't want to drag him into this." Now, with the election date approaching, there is the question: will the new president change France's foreign policy in the Middle East? The answer is that French interests require the country's Arab policy to remain fixed on core principles, whatever the personal inclinations of the person who takes over the Foreign Ministry. The method of dealing with matters could certainly change, depending on the officials involved. On the Arab-Israeli struggle, every new French administration has sought to play a role in peace, and has failed to see Europe obtain an effective role in a moribund peace process. As for the Arab Spring, it is certain that Hollande will continue to support it. On Syria, Hollande has condemned the acts of the Bashar Assad regime. The method and manner of dealing with the country will certainly change. French diplomats who will be responsible for preparing policy files on Middle East issues, meanwhile, come from all political orientations. The new director of the Middle East and North Africa is Ambassador Denis Pietton, known for his left-wing inclinations; he was appointed by the ruling right as ambassador to Lebanon, and to his new post, because he is one of the most competent diplomatic Orientalists. It is true that many western countries do not know Hollande, and prefer to see Sarkozy win. But foreign policy in general with regard to the Middle East will remain centered on the country's fixed principles, even though this issue plays a very marginal role in the campaign. But if Hollande is elected, he will have to be very careful in selecting a foreign minister. He should appoint someone with experience in foreign affairs, such as Hubert Vedrine, who was one of the best foreign ministers, although his name is not being circulated in the speculation over likely candidates. There are many names being tossed around for this post, such as former Prime Minister Laurent Fabius, Jean-Louis Bianco, the MP and former official from the Mitterand era, Elizabeth Guigou, also a former European affairs minister, and perhaps Martine Aubry, the secretary general of the Socialist Party, if she does not become prime minister. It remains too early to get involved in such wagers, as the French press has. Sarkozy continues his campaign. But if he loses, it will be because of his personality and temperament, and not his platform, because the French people, and even some members of his party, preferred another person from the ruling right to be their candidate, such as Foreign Minister Alain Juppe or Prime Minister Francois Fillon, who could be the right's candidate in 2017. If Hollande wins, it will be mostly due to the rejection of Sarkozy's personality, and not a given program. Many French who chosen Hollande have done so because they reject Sarkozy. But the final word will be with the voters, on 22 April and 6 May.
