Egypt is always on mind and in my heart. When I read certain things about it I become sad, but when I hear other things about it I am pleased. Perhaps it would be more accurate for me to say here instead, that when I read certain things about it I become anxious, because anxiety is in my blood. The news carried by Western sources on Egypt, both political and economic, is not reassuring. For this reason, I called some of the youths of the revolution, specifically a young man and a young woman who had a leading role in starting the revolution in Egypt and defend it abroad, and heard from them details that made me expect a better future. I left Cairo last week and stopped for one day in London. I took with me to Riyadh all the material on Egypt gathered for me by my office and Al-Hayat's researchers. Then when I was in the Saudi capital, I would receive any new news on a daily basis, which I would subsequently read and note down my observations on them. Revolution, any revolution, is not the end. It is merely the beginning. I always felt that the aspirations of Egypt's youths are more that the country can handle, and I was afraid that their hopes might be dampened, which would lead to a new revolution or even a military coup. The sources I usually rely on when following the economic affairs of any Arab country include the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the London-based the Financial Times (I don't trust the Likudnik Wall Street Journal) and also Bloomberg and reports published by British and American think tanks. In short, after five years of gradual growth of the Egyptian economy, averaging an annual growth of 5 to 8 %, growth forecasts for this year were revised down to 2.5 %, and even 1 % according to a report by the IMF, while Egypt reportedly needs a sustained growth of 7% to meet the needs of its citizenry. Egypt's monetary reserve declined, while its budget deficit stood at 8.5 percent. And between January 1 and February 2 this year, around one million tourists cut their vacations in Egypt short or cancelled them altogether, bearing in mind that tourism is among the country's primary revenue streams. Despite all this, food prices rose by ten percent, and I read that the Egyptian pound may fall against the dollar and trade at 6.5 pounds for the dollar with the end of the year. The above, added to domestic instability, is enough to worry anyone. Nevertheless, I found it reassuring that Dr. Farouk El-Okda, the governor of the central bank, Dr. Sami Radwan, Minister of Finance, and Faiza Abu El Naga, Minister of International Cooperation, travelled to Washington to negotiate a short-term loan of ten billion dollars to overcome the current difficulties. All three officials are highly competent. In truth, I nominated Faiza Abu El Naga in the past for president. But the promises for assistance they received are not sufficient. Beyond all the numbers and reports, I was examining the situation from the following perspective: While the youths of the revolutions have all the good intentions in the world, they have no experience in managing the affairs of the state. Despite this, I saw them imposing their opinions on and pressuring a government that they thrust into power in the first place, disagreeing with the ruling military council, while some chanted against its chief. This is despite the fact that the government comprises experts and upstanding individuals, and the fact that the revolution would not have succeeded without the support of the military. In fact, the expertise present among the members of the military council exceeds that of all the youths of Tahrir Square combined. I thus conveyed my hopes to the youths, and found out that they support the government's economic team's request for Washington to forgive Egypt's 3.5 billion dollar debts. I immediately sent them a report I had kept, entitled “Odious Debts” written by two Harvard professors. Its main premise supported by case-studies is that a new democratic regime is not obligated to pay the debts of the former regime, if it could be proven that the debts were not for the benefit of the people. The youths once again painted a picture of the situation that was rather reassuring. I trust their arguments and I choose the following from them: - There indeed was disagreement between the youths who want a real revolution and immediate change, and between the ‘old men' of the military council and their tardiness in taking measures. - The situation is better now. There is confidence in the council and its head, following the recent measures against the former president and his two sons, which have allayed fears. - If the recent decisions were taken two or three months ago, the situation would have been stabilized immediately. What remains now are particular demands raised by trade unions and others, not the youths. - Stability and absence of corruption would be followed by the return of tourists and investments. - 70 percent of the overall picture is “nice”, and the remaining thirty will no doubt follow. Be patient. I remain on the side of the youths, because they are the future of Egypt. [email protected]
