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Iran Swims Against the Current
Published in AL HAYAT on 09 - 03 - 2011

Chairman of the Expediency Discernment Council of Iran Hashemi Rafsanjani, noted before withdrawing his candidacy to the post of chairman of the Assembly of Experts for a new term in favor of the ultraconservative candidate Mohammad Reza Mahdavi Kani, that “the extremists who are ignoring the role of the people are extremely dangerous… The actions that are now witnessed (in the region) resulted from the people's ability to learn (about the current events) thanks to the boom affecting the information technology and the media outlets.”
Despite this remark, Rafsanjani was forced to succumb and withdraw his candidacy in the face of those whom he referred to as being “extremists” and “dangerous,” in a quasi intentional disregard of the voices opposing the Iranian conservative wing. Rafsanjani, who was described as being pragmatic during his two presidential terms in the country, acted based on this pragmatism to save his own head rather than listen to the voices of the people. Certainly, the Expediency Discernment Council of Iran and the Assembly of Experts do not enjoy any executive role, but Rafsanjani's presence in them constituted a recognition of a certain level of balance in the ranks of the conservatives. As for his exclusion from the Assembly of Experts, it means the elimination of this balance, following a campaign which has been ongoing for months against the former Iranian president and the members of his family due to suspicions related to his sympathy toward the “Green” opposition, despite the criticisms he addressed to its leaders.
Through their targeting of Rafsanjani, the hardliners targeted the last pragmatic link in their ranks, thus severing any ties with the popular demands - some of which were conveyed by the latter - once and for all. In the meantime, they are praising the protest movements in the region, and are urging them to exert additional escalation in the face of the local authorities.
Rafsanjani's targeting the way it was seen does not only reveal the duplicity within the conservative wing, but also its progress against the current as it was noted by Rafsanjani, who said that the people had become aware of the developments that were taking place and that they wanted their human, political and livelihood rights.
This targeting sends a clear message to the “Green” opposition, saying that the authority will not show any leniency toward its actions and protests, after these protests – due to the ongoing oppression - became limited to mere attempts to protect oneself from detention, house arrest and prosecution threats. This is now happening with the two leaders of the opposition, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, whose status remains unknown.
It seems that the goal behind this stringency is to protect the domestic arena from the effects of the events witnessed in the neighboring countries, by spreading the illusion that they were inspired by the Iranian model which they were trying to emulate. Such claims could have worked in the past, but not today, considering that the events can now be followed live via any satellite channel, and that the nature of the demands and the content of the demonstrations can easily be accessed.
The Iranian authorities are doing their best to continue swimming against the current with obstinacy and arrogance. They may think that the country's internal image can be enhanced by striking anyone who voices a different or contradictory opinion, but this method is removing the safety valves which they used in the past to face the opposition movement on the street. This is somewhat the role which Rafsanjani played during the stage that followed the last presidential elections, and for which he is now paying the price, as he carried out an attempt – that failed miserably - to achieve concord between the demands of those who opposed the results of these elections and the authority represented by Guide Ali Khamenei.
Consequently, there is no recognition of any complaint, no response to any demand and no leniency in the oppression of the oppositionists.


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