Today's meeting between United States President Barack Obama and Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri in the White House, and the Sarkozy-Obama summit that preceded the French president's meetings in New York with Hariri and Saudi Arabia's King Abdel-Aziz, are developments that indicate to all that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon will continue. They also indicate that the STL's coming indictment is a red line from which no one will retreat, and that everyone is concerned with avoiding destabilization in the country. The French and American leaders spoke about the need to see Lebanon avoid any deterioration in its security situation, bearing in mind that the indictment is a reality that cannot be changed. It is a difficult formula for the two presidents, since Prime Minister Hariri has a big responsibility to prevent any security-related disturbances. Hariri has said repeatedly that he will not allow his father's blood to be a source of strife in the country, despite the difficulty of this responsibility. Hariri is awaiting the results of the investigation by the UN prosecutor, Daniel Bellemare, and the indictment by the STL, to address his people and say what he wants to say about preventing division and strife. If accusations are made at some people, this does not mean that a certain party is being accused, and this has been repeated by Hariri to some officials. However, those who issue threats about the repercussions of the indictment do not understand this type of argument, unfortunately. Justice and the STL, as their names indicate, are not the property of Saad Hariri or any other party in Lebanon. Such measures have been taking their course, ever since the establishment of a court to try the criminals who carried out the assassination of former prime minister of Lebanon, along with his comrades, and the killing of journalists and intellectuals and other innocent victims. How can a court established at the request of Lebanon be cast aside? It is difficult to ask the prime minister of Lebanon, even if he is the son of the victim, to take on the responsibility of issuing pardons for the crimes. The difficult formula that some are putting forth in Lebanon is the following: either cancelling the STL, which is not possible, or turning the country into ruins, which is something that no one wants, except for those who make the threats. Some expect security unrest in Lebanon with the issuing of the indictment; others expect paralysis, and a resort to more political tension. It currently appears that regional initiatives to end the crisis are frozen, because the other side has not carried out everything that it should as a part of the “political settlement.” This is what Hariri told Al-Hayat newspaper. However, if the security condition deteriorates, this will not benefit the camp that has failed to do what it is supposed to as part of the settlement; the possibility that Israel will get involved constitutes a danger to the entire region, with Syria and Lebanon at the forefront. The Sarkozy-Obama summit discussed ways to remove the possibility of a security explosion in Lebanon. The two leaders have sought to help Saad Hariri take steps aimed at cooling the situation. The French president has good ties with his Syrian counterpart, and might use them as he tries to obtain a guarantee from Bashar Assad that he will not let his allies destabilize Lebanon. However, it now seems that the principal regional players have yet to show all of their cards when it comes to the post-indictment phase. We are noticing that some are unconcerned with what will happen, while others are awaiting the indictment to gauge what to do. There is a danger in the lack of clarity about what is awaiting Lebanon, despite the French-American initiative and contacts being made by Prime Minister Hariri. The next few weeks will be decisive for Lebanon because the appointment with the truth is drawing near, and it is hoped that things won't head in the wrong direction!
