Whenever there is information issued about a Saudi-Syrian settlement, or when there is a news item from Syria or Iran about the STL, Lebanon experiences either cold winds, or very hot ones. Yesterday, Syrian President Bashar Assad was quoted as comparing the anticipated STL indictment as a new 17 May 1983 for Lebanon. The Supreme Leader of Iran has informed us that the indictment is void and that the STL itself is void and unacceptable. The pressure from the two influential states in Lebanon through their primary ally, Hezbollah, is part of a policy of exerting more psychological pressure on the government of Saad Hariri. This is so that Syria, Iran and Hezbollah will hear what they want to from Hariri when the indictment is transferred from prosecutor Daniel Bellemare to re-trial judge Fransen: namely, Hariri will declare the innocence of any side mentioned in the indictment. However, Saad Hariri is neither the STL nor the judiciary. He is a prime minister who is fully aware that he does not want to see strife among the Lebanese; he does not want Sunni-Shiite strife, or the destruction of his country, and he has mentioned several times that he does not want his father's blood to be a cause of strife. Today, we are about to see the indictment turned over from prosecutor Bellemare to judge Fransen, and this might take place at the beginning of next month or mid-month at the latest. This should take place publicly, so that the Lebanese know that Bellemare has arrived at the conclusion of his work with evidence, which he arrived at after careful study. The transfer of this file to Fransen should be announced publicly. First of all, if it remains secret, this will result in leads, rumors and interpretations, as is currently the case. Secondly, it is the right of the Lebanese people to know where the course of justice is leading, even if the content of the indictment will not be known until February or March, because Fransen, before turning the indictment over to the STL, must study which law will be applied by the STL – Lebanese or international law? No one can halt the course of the STL; saying that Saad Hariri can overturn the indictment is the opposite of what the Syrians heard from French President Nicolas Sarkozy, namely that no one can intervene in the tribunal or in Bellemare's work. There was harmony between Syria, Iran and their ally on the ground in Lebanon, Hezbollah. Indeed, each of these three players advised Saad Hariri to cancel the tribunal, either through threats at times, via Hezbollah, or through recalling the consequences of the 17 May peace agreement. However, it is in the interest of none of the players in the region today to see Lebanon fall into a state of war; the exception here is Israel, whose aggressive policy always wants to see the region remain in a state of war, so that it remains the superpower's policeman in the region, and to prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state on its borders. The European Union, the United States and Russia do not want a war in Lebanon; Syria knows how dangerous it is to see instability in Lebanon, or Israel getting involved, bearing in mind that Israel has traditionally and historically avoided taking its wars to Syrian territory, as in 1982 and 2006. However, the danger of the situation today lies in the possible expansion of the scope of Israeli hostilities, as no one knows what might happen in such an eventuality. Iran, meanwhile, has begun to suffer economically from international sanctions; it has reduced its financial assistance to Hezbollah, and lifted subsidies on gasoline and petroleum derivatives. Iran is also suffering politically, amid profound domestic disputes, as we saw with the sacking of the foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, from the government. Will all of these countries move toward choosing to set in motion a dangerous confrontation in Lebanon? Will the situation heat up in the South? This would be a wild probability, and in any case, Saad Hariri cannot abolish the STL or the indictment, since this is an international judicial move, and everyone is aware that canceling it is an impossibility.
