Christopher Ross' belief that the Sahara conflict is at an impasse is correct. The American diplomat has realized the absence of good intentions represents an obstacle to his performance, and no negotiations can move very far if the parties are not armed with these good intentions, or with the desire to end the problem and not maneuver around it, or coexist with it, as if nothing is happening. In terms of the signals, Ross began his trip to the region with Morocco and ended in Algeria; in between were discussions at the TINDOUF camp and in Mauritania. Perhaps the most important statement came in Algeria, where he said that the country adjoining the Western Sahara “is invited to cooperate with the United Nations in order to arrive at a political solution that is in harmony with the principles of the United Nations.” He was understood as saying that without Algeria's cooperation, a predicament would result. However, he expressed his optimism about the opportunities available to find an optimal solution for the region in terms of security and humanitarian issues. This means the disparity in the positions of the various sides vis-à-vis the concept of the political solution do not cancel the idea of dealing with the security and humanitarian aspects of the conflict, since they are less embarrassing to the parties, if they move from one position to another. Perhaps it is the first time that the international envoy to the Sahara is putting forward security and humanitarian issues as an entry-point to sorting out the various positions. After all, his visit to the region was in order to discuss the coming phases of a political settlement, namely the resumption of negotiations on a new set of foundations. As we approach any official or informal negotiations, the various sides are digging in, entrenching themselves behind their conflicting stances. Ross acknowledges that his efforts have reached an impasse. He is opening up a small fissure in the thick wall, by talking about security and humanitarian issues. This means the conditions of Saharan refugees in the TINDOUF camp cannot be ignored because the parties have not reached an agreement about the basis for the negotiations. To the same extent, fears about the security situation, which are imposing themselves on the region, its neighbors and its American and European partners cannot be dropped from the formula for a settlement, while everyone waits for the various positions to mature. Ross does not want to end up admitting that the Sahara conflict will continue to fester. He does not want to draw a lot of attention to his experience in getting to the core of the problem. In his view, the solution is possible, and necessary. However, it requires considerable patience, to get the various parties to take the same path. During his first visit, he was concerned with absorbing the blow of the collapse of the talks after four rounds in Manhasset. All of the parties had just recovered from the impact of a wager that failed to bear fruit. Some believed that direct negotiations represented an accomplishment in and of itself, while others saw the failure of the talks as a benefit. On his second visit, Ross hinted at the regional dimension to the conflict, and adopted the opinion of the Maghreb Union before settling on the tactic of loosening the parties' reluctance to speak through informal negotiations. They differed from official talks only in that they are less binding and wider in scope. However, during his recent visit Ross urged Algeria to cooperate with UN efforts, signaling that UN Security Council resolutions call for neighboring countries to encourage negotiations. Even more important than this gradual and escalatory method, Ross has seemed like a person who has discovered that he is getting lost in the paths adjacent to the Sahara, and is trying to walk along another one. The important thing for him is that he has pointed his compass toward an oasis of peace, without being deceived by a mirage. It is likely that when he goes to the Security Council next month, he will have chosen the path that leads to a solution. Certainly, he will have tried walking in a dark tunnel and no one cares about a blind man. But he has continued to walk toward the dim light at the end of this tunnel. If the Sahara negotiations are politically intractable, due to the divergence in the positions of the various parties, they are not intractable when it comes to security challenges and humanitarian conditions. This is precisely the essence of the breakthrough that Ross is trying to achieve. However, it will be difficult for the dialogue about these issues to be selective, in light of the interconnected issues and the divergent stances.
