When the cautious American diplomat Christopher Ross arrives in Morocco early next week, he will find reason to be even more cautious vis-à-vis a solution to the Saharan predicament. First of all, there is the task of convincing Morocco to enter a new round of unofficial negotiations. Then, there are the hints by the Polisario that it will return to military action, amidst ongoing uncertainty regarding the issue of the Saharan dissident Mustapha Salma. As part of his cautious approach, Ross has not called for the resumption of the negotiations, not because he does not want to enforce his agenda concerning the talks, but because he does not want such an initiative to resemble earlier efforts, which failed to lead to any progress. He is encouraged in this view by the fact that his visit follows that of the Secretary General of the United Nations, Ban Ki-moon, to Morocco. This visit will produce a new reading of the Sahara issue, one that is not isolated from the major strategic and security challenges faced by the Maghreb region and the nearby Sahel and Sahara regions. Ross is no longer as optimistic as he was when first taking up responsibility for this issue. In this, he resembles the others who have dealt with the issue, before they discovered that the gap between desire and ability in performing this task is greater than what is revealed during the negotiations. However, at the same time, Ross does not want pessimism to dominate the efforts he exerts towards the aim of rebuilding confidence. More than one challenge awaits Ross. First of all, the mechanism for exchanging visits between Saharans and those residing in the Tindouf camps, which was being counted upon as a way to achieve a humane approach to this issue, has collapsed. Ross will also discover that the number of Saharans who have been displaced in the region has risen noticeably. This has become a pressing issue, in the absence of any initiative by the United Nations High Commission on Refugees or the UN itself. In Morocco, Algeria and the Tindouf camps, Ross will also hear accusations exchanged by the various sides, on the subject of adherence to human rights. Meanwhile, he will have to employ a combination of pressure and persuasion to get all the sides involved to engage in talks, as this is his only hope in not seeing his mission ending in failure. Previously, Ross was able to force the parties concerned to examine all of the proposals on the table. Morocco accepted the idea of listening to the Polisario justifying its call for a return to the referendum option, which would propose the possibility of the province's independence, permanent annexation to Morocco, or autonomy as options for voters. Likewise, the Polisario negotiators listened to even more precise details about autonomy, which will involve the formation of a local legislature and government, in which Polisario members will take part upon their voluntary return to Morocco. However, the legal and political discussions have yet to produce a solution for the divergence in views among the various players, and it does not seem likely that a third or fourth meeting on this topic will achieve what previous talks have failed to do. All of the recipes that have been tried so far have resulted in a dead end. Polisario's maximum demand involves negotiating with Rabat as a concerned party. In return, Rabat's maximum demand involves a halt by Algeria to its support for what it believes is a separatist option. With these interlocking issues in play, it was inevitable that the relationship between Morocco and Algeria would be damaged the most by the continuing repercussions of the conflict. Although the UN envoy Ross succeeded in putting forward, and not imposing, a regional approach to the issue, the prevailing tension in the bilateral relations of the two neighbors does not hint that a solution is in the offing. While it is true that Moroccans and Algerians have coexisted with each other for a period of time, despite the negative impact of the Sahara conflict, it is also true that instead of seeing a Moroccan-Algerian rapprochement as an element that will help solve the Sahara crisis, the issue has become a Moroccan-Algerian crisis issue. While it is out of the question that Ross will discuss the possibility of normalization between the two neighbors, since this is not his task, it is also unlikely for any progress to take place, due to the lack of Moroccan-Algerian accord, and its critical impact on these developments (whether adversely or favorably). Finally, Ross's visit, with its regional character, is another important indicator that without regional accord, the Sahara conflict will continue, and will sail towards uncharted seas.
