Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko was poised to win almost 75 percent of the vote in a Sunday election, an exit poll showed, cementing his hold on the ex-Soviet Republic he has ruled with an iron fist since 1994, according to Reuters. The 56-year old former state farm director, who was running against an assortment of disorganised rivals, dismissed threats by his opponents to protest against the result, which would give him a fourth five-year term. Lukashenko won backing at the 11th hour from Moscow after being vilified on Russian television for weeks and he seems set to continue a policy of playing off Russia against the West. The conduct of the vote, the margin of victory, and how opposition protests are handled may decide how far the European Union goes in engaging with the country of 10 million people that serves as a buffer between Russia and NATO and a transit route for Russian gas heading to Europe. The head of an observer mission from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) told reporters before the polls closed that the vote could be considered "better" than the last one in 2006. Nine candidates were running against Lukashenko. Core opponents, including the Tell the Truth movement of Vladimir Neklyayev and Belarussian nationalists, plan to call supporters out into the freezing October Square on Sunday evening in protest at what they say was heavy vote rigging. Lukashenko secured more than 80 percent of the vote in the last election. An early exit poll by EcooM, a pro-government research centre, predicted he would win 74.7 percent this time. The EU, which for years treated Lukashenko as a pariah, is now suggesting financial aid could be in the offing for Belarus if there is at least a veneer of democracy in the election this time round. State security forces gave a warning on the eve of the vote that they would crack down on attempts to "whip up tension". As evening fell on Sunday, black-clothed security officers gathered in pairs on street corners around October Square in Minsk and police began erecting barriers. Lukashenko, appearing before journalists at a polling station, scoffed at the opposition and played down the likely impact of their protests. "Don't worry, there will be nobody on the square," he said. SON CASTS BALLOT Lukashenko was accompanied by his third son, 6-year-old Nikolai, who cast the ballot for his beaming father in the full glare of television cameras. But political fervour was generally in short supply on the broad, snow-laden avenues of the capital. Lukashenko crushed dissent harshly in the early years of his rule, jailing opponents and muzzling the media. He was dubbed Europe's 'last dictator' by the Bush administration. This time round, relations with Belarus's chief benefactor Russia have been frayed as the Kremlin reined in energy subsidies underpinning the Belarussian command economy. But reconciliation came last week in the form of an oil and gas pricing deal, extinguishing any glimmer of hope from the opposition that Russia might withhold its endorsement. Russia agreed to drop duties on oil exports to Belarus and keep natural gas prices unchanged next year. The EU, now using more carrot than stick to try to loosen up Lukashenko's authoritarian rule, will be watching carefully Monday's verdict by the OSCE which has fielded a small army of election monitors across the snow-bound country. The OSCE has denounced past Belarussian elections as neither free nor fair. Lukashenko's often harsh crackdowns on political opponents has been cleverly balanced by a policy of generous welfare and pensions. Referred to as 'batka' (father) by many people, his man-of-the-people style goes down well with those nostalgic for the security of the Soviet era. "I voted for Lukashenko. We've been 16 years with him already," said Lyudmila, a factory worker in her 50s. Polling stations were due to close at 8 p.m.
