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Too early to declare victory on slump, says Trichet
Published in Saudi Press Agency on 05 - 08 - 2010


The European Central Bank (ECB) chief
Jean-Claude Trichet said Thursday it was too early to declare victory
in the crisis that has gripped the 16-member eurozone economy in
recent months and triggered turmoil in financial markets.
Trichet's comments came after the ECB's 22-member rate-setting
council left its benchmark refinancing rate unchanged at an historic
low of 1 per cent, according to dpa.
Speaking at his regular monthly press conference, Trichet said the
bank believes that after a very good second quarter, the third
quarter is already looking "better than expected".
This followed signs pointing to a solid pickup in the eurozone
economy and an easing in market tensions unleashed by the eurozone
debt crisis.
"There has been good news but let us remain prudent," the ECB
chief said.
"I don't declare victory," said Trichet. "We remain cautious," he
said, adding that he expects the eurozone economy to be less buoyant
in the second half compared with the second quarter.
Despite the current economic upswing underway in the eurozone,
Trichet declined to lay down plans for the ECB to resume its moves to
roll back the non-conventional policy measures it has launched to
boost economic confidence.
"We will do what is appropriate taking in all the circumstances,"
he said.
Trichet also went on to insist that the ECB governing council was
"not signalling changes in interest rates."
The problem for the Frankfurt-based ECB is orchestrating a push to
exit from the non-conventional measures without jeopardizing the
region's recovery.
Thursday's ECB announcement followed a statement from the Bank of
England that it was keeping rates on hold at an all-time low of
0.5 per cent. Rates in Britain have remained unchanged since March
last year.
In contrast to signs of accelerating growth in the eurozone,
concerns have emerged that world economic growth could slow in the
coming months.
As a result, many analysts believe the ECB will keep borrowing
costs on hold for possibly another year or more.
Overhanging the eurozone's economic outlook are the prospects of
the economic growth rate falling back in China but in particular in
the US.
But Trichet said: "It would be very premature to draw a negative
conclusion about the US economy."
Eurozone borrowing costs have been on hold since May last year
as the region's economy has battled to shake off what has been
dubbed the Great Recession.
However, more recently robust results from Europe's industrial
sector and several big banks combined with rising economic confidence
have pointed to growth gaining momentum.
The euro has also gained ground in recent weeks, highlighting
the emergence of more stable financial markets as the fallout from
this year's eurozone debt crisis continues to fade.
The common currency rose to 1.3236 dollars, following the ECB's
rate announcement and downbeat US jobs data. "The market is
functioning a little bit better," said Trichet.
The European Commission's closely watched economic sentiment
indicator released last week hit a 29-month high in July, adding
to evidence of improving economic growth.
While the ECB's governing council was deliberating in Frankfurt,
Germany's Ministry of Economics and Technology said factory orders in
Europe's biggest economy surged by 3.2 per cent in June.
But a rise in energy and food costs combined to drive up the
eurozone's annual inflation rate to a 20-month high of 1.7 per cent
in July.
This pushed inflation in the currency bloc up towards the ECB's
target of below, but close to, 2 per cent. Eurozone consumer prices
had stood at 1.4 per cent in June.
Despite a pickup in consumer prices, the ECB expects inflationary
pressures to remain contained.


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