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Report: US global clout to decrease with rise of China, India
Published in Saudi Press Agency on 21 - 11 - 2008


The economic and political clout of the United
States will decline by 2025, the spread of nuclear weapons and cyber-
terrorism will emerge as the most potent global threats, and new wars
are likely to be fought over water and food scarcity, according to dpa.
This bleak assessment was released Thursday by the National
Intelligence Council (NIC), in its hefty, 120-page Global Trends 2025
report, which takes a long-term view of how key issues are likely to
develop over the next few years.
While the US will remain "the single most powerful country," it
will be significantly less dominant, with shrinking military and
economic capabilities, the NIC said in its report that was compiled
after a year-long analysis by intelligence experts.
The report forecast a revolutionised world order, with the most
powerful players being Brazil, Russia, India and China. It also
described an unprecedented transfer of wealth from the West to the
East, and a staggering population increase of 1.5 billion people,
which would put pressure on increasingly scarce resources such as
energy, food and water.
The economic growth projections for Brazil, Russia, India and
China indicate that they will match the original Group of Seven's
share of global GDP between 2040 and 2050.
The report said that China was set to have more global impact in
the next 20 years than any other country - by 2025, it will have the
world's second-largest economy, be a leading military power, the
largest importer of natural resources and the biggest polluter.
"No other countries are projected to rise to the level of China,
India or Russia, and none is likely to match their individual global
clout," NIC, a government body, said.
The report also warned that "the potential for conflict will
increase owing partly to political turbulence in parts of the greater
Middle East," and apart from the US, countries such as Russia, China
and India will play greater roles as negotiators.
The NIC was unclear whether the efficient and widespread use of
biofuels and clean coal would wean countries off their oil addiction
and herald an "energy transition." The potential consequence of high
oil and gas prices would bring increase the influence of Iran and
Russia, with the latter's GDP approaching that of Britain and France.
Among the regions expected to fall further behind were sub-Saharan
Africa, which will continue to face economic disruption, high
population growth, civil conflict and political instability.
The countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America will account for
virtually all population growth over the next 20 years, while less
than 3 percent of the growth will occur in the West, the report said.


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