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Brazil's Lula tries to reassure on economic policy
Published in Saudi Press Agency on 31 - 10 - 2006


After being carried to
re-election by his popularity with the poor, Brazilian
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is striving to reassure the
business community he will not abandon market-friendly policies
to create jobs and boost income, according to Reuters.
On Monday night Lula was forced to address rumors of an
imminent departure of Finance Minister Guido Mantega. He also
insisted he would maintain the pillars of current economic
policy -- inflation targets, a floating exchange rate, and a
primary budget surplus to manage public debt.
"We will continue with a responsible fiscal policy, we
won't touch the inflation target," the president said in a
television interview.
The comments helped calm financial markets on Tuesday. The
currency and stocks bounced back marginally in early afternoon
trading after dropping on Monday on worries about the future of
Lula's economic team.
Despite four years of economic policies that helped make
Brazil a Wall Street favorite, some investors still have
lingering doubts that the former union leader, who preached
debt default for decades, genuinely believes in economic
austerity.
Analysts say Lula is in a bind over how to balance the need
to quicken slow economic growth while not alienating
investors.
"If he touches the central bank (to reduce interest rates),
that'll unsettle financial markets," political scientist David
Fleischer said. "But with this slow growth, Brazil won't go
anywhere. The president faces a delicate dilemma."
The latest uncertainty surged after several cabinet
members, emboldened by Sunday's victory, said Lula would reduce
interest rates and increase public spending to help accelerate
growth in his second term.
Tarso Genro, Lula's top political advisor, even declared
the "end of the Palocci era" in reference to Lula's former
market-friendly finance minister, who was synonymous with
austerity but forced to resign over a bribery scandal.
The Lula government has been easing fiscal discipline over
the past year. The 12-month primary budget surplus, which
excludes interest payments, fell to 4.28 percent of gross
domestic product in September from near 5.2 percent a year
earlier.
Lula gave Mantega little more than a lukewarm endorsement
on Monday night.
"What I can say is that Guido is my finance minister until
I want, and when I don't want him, he won't be minister," Lula
said in another television interview. "But he won't leave
because of some comments and rumors."
Dilma Rouseff, Lula's cabinet chief, who on Sunday said
economic growth would be a second term "obsession," later said
the government would have to "streamline the apparatus and cut
costs to maintain investments and social spending."
Some investors like what they heard from Lula and his
aides.
"The first moment of concern over internal politics has
gone by, Lula has ... in a certain way refuted the comments
from Tarso Genro," said Miriam Tavares, foreign exchange
director at brokerage AGK Corretora in Sao Paolo.
Other investors were less convinced. Alexandre Schwartsman,
chief economist of ABN Amro in Sao Paulo and a former central
bank director in the Lula government, said the contradiction
between Lula and his aides was "mind-boggling" and did not bode
well for unity in the Lula camp.
Lula is expected to give a televised speech on Tuesday
evening.


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