EUROPEAN UNION EXPERTS SAID FRIDAY THAT AN INFLUENZA PANDEMIC THAT COULD KILL MILLIONS REMAINS INEVITABLE, ALTHOUGH THE IMMEDIATE THREAT TO HUMAN HEALTH FROM BIRD FLU IN EUROPE REMAINS LOW, AP REPORTED. «IT'S WHEN AND NOT IF,» SAID ROBERT MADELIN, DIRECTOR GENERAL OF THE EU'S HEALTH AND CONSUMER PROTECTION DEPARTMENT. INFLUENZA PANDEMICS ARE RARE, BUT RECURRENT EVENTS. MADELIN CITED SCIENTISTS' PREDICTIONS SUGGESTING A FLU PANDEMIC COULD KILL 2-7 MILLION PEOPLE WORLDWIDE, 10 TIMES THE DEATH RATE FROM REGULAR FLU. HOWEVER, HE WARNED THAT FORECASTING WAS VERY DIFFICULT AND THAT CURRENT PREDICTIONS COULD BE «WILDLY WRONG.» THERE IS NO WAY OF PREDICTING HOW DEADLY AN INFLUENZA PANDEMIC MIGHT BE, AND ANY GUESSES AT A FUTURE DEATH TOLL ARE SPECULATIVE AT BEST. THE HEAD OF THE EU'S CENTER FOR DISEASE CONTROL SAID EFFORTS TO CONTAIN OUTBREAKS OF THE AVIAN INFLUENZA H5N1 STRAIN AMONG DOMESTIC POULTRY IN EUROPE HAD BEEN SUCCESSFUL. «H5N1 IS A VERY LOW RISK TO PUBLIC HEALTH IN THE EUROPEAN UNION,» SAID ZSUZSANNA JAKAB. SHE ADDED THAT THE THREAT OF MORE OUTBREAKS AMONG EUROPEAN BIRDS REMAINED, AND WARNED CONTINUED CASES OF HUMANS CONTRACTING THE DISEASE FROM INFECTED BIRDS IN ASIA INCREASED THE RISK THAT THE VIRUS COULD MUTATE INTO A STRAIN THAT MIGHT PASS MORE EASILY FROM PERSON TO PERSON. «IT MAY BE A LOW LEVEL THREAT BUT IT IS ONE WHICH WE MUST TAKE VERY SERIOUSLY,» JAKAB TOLD A NEWS CONFERENCE. «AS LONG AS THE VIRUS IS ENDEMIC IN ASIA AND PARTS OF AFRICA IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT IT WILL RECUR IN EUROPE.» THE EU SAID ALL 25 OF ITS MEMBER NATIONS HAD NOW DRAWN UP NATIONAL PREPAREDNESS PLANS TO DEAL WITH A PANDEMIC. AMONG OTHER MEASURES, THE BLOC HAS INVESTED ¤200 MILLION (US$250 MILLION) IN HELPING COUNTRIES IN ASIA, AFRICA AND OTHER HIGH RISK AREAS MONITOR AND CONTROL THE DISEASE, AND WAS SPENDING ¤20 MILLION (US$25 MILLION) ON RESEARCH ON VACCINES. HOWEVER, MADELIN SAID EU NATIONS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE PLANS FOR DEALING WITH THE SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACT OF A PANDEMIC WHICH HE SAID COULD PUT UP TO HALF OF THE WORK FORCE ON SICK LEAVE, SEVERELY CURTAIL CONSUMER SPENDING, AND ADD A HUGE BURDEN TO MEDICAL SERVICES BY PUTTING UP TO 5 MILLION EXTRA PEOPLE INTO EUROPEAN HOSPITAL BEDS.
