International donors should back civilian efforts to create an alternative to Guinea's ailing President Lansana Conte to reduce the probability of a military takeover, the International Crisis Group said on Tuesday according to Reuters. Attempts by opposition parties and other groups to prepare transitional institutions offer the West African country the best chance to prevent an army takeover, but require foreign help, The Brussels-based think tank said in a report. "The probability is now high that President Conte's term will end in a military takeover," said the report, which called for a national conference led by a Catholic clergyman to chart the former French colony's course through a transfer of power. "It seems likely, though not certain, that Guinea will experience a political transition before the 2007 (legislative) elections," it said. Conte's current term expires in late 2010. The diabetic, chain-smoking Conte, who has ruled the world's top bauxite exporter since a 1984 army coup, spent a week in a Swiss clinic last month, renewing concern about his health. Conte's Guinea was seen as a bastion against chaotic 1990s wars in neighbouring Sierra Leone, Liberia and GuineaBissau. But Conte's deteriorating health, lack of a clear successor and weak institutions have raised fears his death will trigger a damaging power struggle, army takeover or even civil war. Crisis Group said recent signs of unions and the political opposition flexing their muscles gave hope for avoiding these -- if a viable election process and a civilian alternative to the powerful military could be established in time. --more 22 19 Local Time 19 19 GMT
