GENEVA: World trade will carry the scars of the financial crisis into 2012, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said Thursday with a prediction of 6.5 percent growth for this year, less than half of last year's sharp rebound. The forecast, for growth in trade of goods as measured by export volume, is above the 6 percent average for 1990 to 2008. The driver will in large part be strong developing economies, especially China. But for worldwide commerce to get back on the growth track seen before a credit crunch and bank failures tipped trade into a 12 percent decline for 2009, growth would need to be an unlikely 19 percent this year, according to WTO statistics. “The hangover from the financial crisis is still with us,” said WTO Director General Pascal Lamy. Developing country trade is projected to grow by 9.5 percent in 2011, while that of developed countries is set to grow only 4.5 percent, the WTO said. The WTO, whose forecasts are limited to merchandise, or goods, also revised up its estimate of trade growth in 2010 to 14.5 percent from 13.5 percent. It said activity had recovered more strongly in developed countries than previously thought.
