Bertrand Aristide once preached and military thugs tried to assassinate him is a ruin now, destroyed by the earthquake that left much of Haiti's capital in rubbles, but the allure of the priest-turned-president remains strong among the jobless men who congregate nearby. To them, Aristide is the only political leader who has ever spoken for the country's poor majority, and his reportedly imminent return to Haiti after seven years of exile in South Africa would be nothing short of rapturous. Rumors of Aristide's return have circulated in Haiti for weeks, causing ripples of excitement, and dread among some. Many wonder about the intentions of Haiti's first democratically elected president and what effect, if any, the presence of the twice-ousted leader would have on Sunday's presidential election. Thousands of supporters are expected to greet Aristide at the airport. But how many thousands? The demonstrations calling for his return have grown smaller by the year since he was ousted in a rebellion in 2004. “I don't see a popular groundswell calling for him to return,” said Alex Dupuy, a Haiti expert and sociology professor at Wesleyan University in Middletown, Connecticut. Marius Fransman, South Africa's Deputy Foreign Minister, told reporters in Pretoria Tuesday that Aristide could return to Haiti in the next few days, or a week. He said the South African government is helping the former president return home and the US State Department, which has urged Aristide to delay his return until after Haiti's election, should raise any concerns with the Haitian government. Sunday's election, featuring two former critics of the ousted leader, is crucial to the stability and development of Haiti, which is still struggling to emerge from a devastating January 2010 earthquake, a deadly cholera outbreak and the aftermath of a disputed first round of the vote. The race is close and a word from Aristide in support of a candidate or questioning the legitimacy of the election could have a powerful effect. “If he proposes somebody to us (as a candidate), that's who we will follow,” said Supreme Wilson, a 34-year-old in La Saline, the dusty neighborhood around the church. Scholars note that Aristide will return to a country very different from the one he fled. The political party over which he presided is no longer dominant.Sunday's presidential election is the second since the rebellion and Haiti is relatively stable due in part to the presence of nearly 9,000 UN peacekeepers who have been in the country since his ouster in 2004. “The political landscape has changed significantly since then,” Dupuy said. “I see him coming back to a playing field where neither he nor his Lavalas party are the principal actors.” In exile, Aristide has kept a low profile, and boosted his already considerable academic credentials. He has been a professor at the University of South Africa. His wife, Mildred, worked at the university's Centre for African Renaissance Studies. Neither were paid but South African taxpayers covered their living expenses including a mansion, chauffeur-driven limousines and bodyguards, and a private school for their two daughters. And Aristide has plenty of enemies. Many former soldiers resent him for disbanding the army in 1995 following years of repression and abuses, including the 1988 attempt to kill him in his church before rapt parishioners. Many of Haiti's wealthy elite also revile his populist agenda. His followers, however, plan a hero's welcome. “We're waiting,” said Supreme Wilson. “We're waiting for our president.
