IT was dismaying, if fairly unsurprising, to learn of Iran's outright rejection of an incentives package aimed at persuading the nation to terminate its apparent march toward acquisition of a nuclear weapon. Javier Solana, the European Union's top diplomat, arrived in Tehran with an offer backed by the US, Great Britain, China, Russia, France and Germany. A government spokesman, without giving any time for Iran to study the proposal, said “If the package includes suspension, it is not debatable at all.” That is about as close to telling Solana that his trip has been a waste of time as anything could be. This outright rejection will lead inevitably to increased sanctions on Iran, this time with China and Russia willing to join in. During George W. Bush's farewell trip to Europe, he has already said that “all options are on the table,” as far as dealing with Iran. That does not translate in to increased diplomacy in any language and only serves to heighten the tension in the region. The outcome of all of this is likely to be seismic, no matter what it is. There seems to be no real practical point for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. The country is not likely to use them for the very reason that the US and the USSR never used them. It would mean assured destruction for the country and its people. One use, no matter how contained or how minimal, of a nuclear weapon by Iran would provoke a massive retaliation that could literally wipe the country off the face of the earth. Of course, a nuclear arsenal would create a military balance of power in the region, with Iran serving as a counterweight to Israel in the military force department. While a counterweight to Israel's military would be a desirable situation, there is a litany of reasons that Iran is not the ideal nation for that. For now, the current proposal and immediate rejection only serve to increase tension. That is obviously to the liking of certain parties. If Iran continues to enrich uranium, it is likely to provoke a strike by Israel or directly by the US. On the other hand, given the level of domestic discontent with the Iranian government, the tension could weaken it and prompt civil action against it. Many years ago, Rodney King, the victim of a vicious police beating in Los Angeles that led to massive riots in that city, appeared on TV and uttered, “Can't we all just get along?” Someone on the geopolitical stage needs to do the same thing, right now. Solana's arrival in Tehran was a reasonable facsimile of that. If Iran continues to answer “no,” it will be the biggest loser in the end, no matter what that end is. __
