JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia will account for 17.22 percent of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2014, with a theoretical supply surplus if there is sufficient additional investment in capacity, Research and Markets said Monday. Moreover, the Kingdom's thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 215TWh, or 18.88 percent of the regional total, the report said, adding that by 2014, the Kingdom is expected to account for 18.90 percent of thermal generation. The "Saudi Arabia Power Report Q4 2010" from BMI forecast that the MEA power generation estimate for 2010 is 1,221 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.0 percent over the previous year (where markets were depressed by the economic slowdown). BMI also forecast an increase in regional generation to 1,463TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 19.8 percent between 2010 and the end of the period. MEA thermal power generation in 2010 is estimated by BMI at 1,138TWh, accounting for 93.2 percent of the total electricity supplied in the region. The forecast for 2014 is 1,333TWh, implying 17.2 percent growth in 2010-2014 that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 91.1 percent thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. The Saudi Electricity Company (SEC) plans to invest $80 billion to boost capacity to least 70,000 MW by 2020 from an installed capacity of 50,000 MW now, its chief executive Ali Al-Barrak said earlier. “We don't expect it [demand growth] to remain at eight percent for ten years,” Al-Barrak said, adding that demand growth would not continue at eight percent if the company's plan unfolded according to schedule. Around half of SEC capacity is fired by heavy fuel oil, crude and diesel. The rest is fired by gas, Barrak said. “If the gas is available we'll use it to all our plants,” he said, when asked about the use of gas to fire plants in the planned Qurayyah, the under development Riyadh PP11 and the giant 2,700-MW Ras Azzour power and water project.
