Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who has led the country since independence from the Soviet Union, plans a third decade at the helm of Central Asia's largest economy, a top adviser said Thursday. The announcement sends a strong message to the opposition and the political elite in the country that has been engaged in a behind-the-scenes power struggle in anticipation of Nazarbayev's succession. It also buys the president time to settle on a hand-picked successor and signals to foreign investors, who have poured over $150 billion in the country, that the stability associated with his rule will not be endangered anytime soon by fighting over who will replace him. Some analysts had speculated that Nazarbayev's recently acquired status as “Leader of the Nation” – which allows him to shape policy even after stepping down – might pave the way for a gradual handover of the presidency. By saying he will run again, two years before the next elections, Nazarbayev is demonstrating his own political strength and the lack of any viable opposition. “He is keen to show there are not even any remote contenders who are as popular as him and who could even theoretically run for the top job,” said Arkady Dubnov, a Moscow-based expert on Central Asia. Nazarbayev's political adviser chose a curious medium to announce that the president planned to run in the next election: a newspaper run by an opposition activist. Gulzhan Yergaliyeva, editor-in-chief of the Svoboda Slova newspaper, told Reuters: “It looks like a message to opposition parties. On the one hand, they should prepare for a fight. “On the other hand, it is some sort of psychological pressure on his opponents and a show of his power, of his readiness to fight, and of his self-confidence,” she said. Even among the political elite loyal to Nazarbayev, an intensifying, behind-the-scenes power struggle is often cited as the single biggest investment risk in the country. A clear signal by Nazarbayev that he will run again would call a halt to political infighting between those who might push to replace him, but would never stand against him. “He has made a gesture to those surrounding him to take a break, making clear that the fight for his throne is being postponed indefinitely,” Dubnov said. Grooming a successor may take longer than two years. “Nazarbayev has a list of candidates, but he is breaking them into different government jobs, giving them the opportunity to gain experience in specific areas,” said Maxim Kaznacheyev of the Institute of Political Decision-Making in Kazakhstan. “Perhaps later, in the next presidential cycle, he will try them out in higher posts.” Naming a successor prematurely could also backfire, said Andrei Chebotaryov, director of the Alternative think tank. “Even if there were a potential candidate, he would not announce it, because this could provoke negative consequences among the elite.” Kazakhstan holds the rotating chair of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and Nazarbayev is keen to show a commitment to democracy to the outside world. Two weeks before parliament passed the law declaring him “Leader of the Nation”, and thus immune to prosecution, Nazarbayev publicly rejected the need for such powers. He cited Kazakhstan's chairmanship of the OSCE as one of his reasons.
