World wheat production in 2010/11 is projected at 672.2 million tons, down 7.8 million, or just 1 percent from the previous year, Cattlenetwork reported on Friday. It is the third-largest wheat harvest in history, trailing behind abundant crops in the past 2 years, it added. Foreign wheat production is projected to decrease even less, by 3.1 million tons to 616.6 million, a drop of 0.5 percent, because 60 percent of the world decline comes from US wheat production. Foreign wheat area remains at the 2009/10 level supported by prices still high by historical standards, though lower than in the previous 3 years. Foreign yields are projected to be marginally lower, though staying at a historically high level for a third year in a row. World wheat yields are projected to decline slightly, by less than 1 percent, and like wheat production, to be at the third-highest level in history. The European Union continues to be the largest world wheat producer, and with 2010/11 projected output of 145.1 million tons, it will be producing almost 22 percent of world wheat this year. With harvested area remaining at last year's level, EU projected wheat output exceeds the previous years' by 6.2 million tons, bringing wheat yields to the second highest level, following the exceptional 2004/05 marketing year. In China, the world's second-largest wheat producer (around 17 percent of world production), wheat output is projected at 112.0 million tons, down 2.5 million from a year earlier. Though 2010/11 wheat planted area is higher than a year before, projected harvested area is slightly down (0.5 percent) on the year following losses due to drought in some areas and excess rains in others. Wheat yields are projected down by less than 2 percent. In the former Soviet Union, wheat production is forecast at 108.1 million tons in 2010/11 (16 percent of world wheat output), down 5.7 million from the previous year and with area lower by 1.5 million hectares. The main decrease in wheat area is for Russia, where it is projected down 1.0 million hectares on the year. Though area sown for winter wheat in Russia is almost the same as last year, winter kill in a number of regions was substantial. Dry conditions in the autumn, frosts in December before accumulation of sufficient snow coverage, and the persistence of moisture deficiency in the Volga and central Black Soil regions of Russia (parts of those regions had 20+ percent of winterkill) expected to result in a total of 2.0-million-hectares losses in wheat area. Spring wheat planting has just started in European Russia, which on the whole had low precipitation in April, especially in the Volga District, which produces around 30 percent of Russia's spring wheat. This lack of moisture will likely impact yields. In Siberia, the country's main spring-wheat producing area, planting starts in mid-May. Wheat yield for Russia is forecast at a level slightly higher than the 5-year average, but lower than in the last 2 years. It appears that during the past decade, there has been farm-level improvement in Russia. The improvement began in the first part of the 2000-10 decade, but it really manifested itself in the second half of the decade, with the growth in yields being the evidence. The yields during the past 5 years are a good indicator of changing production practices. In the current year, the growing conditions in the south of Russia are favorable. However, some adverse conditions elsewhere, such as in the Volga and central Black soil regions, which until recently were dry, could affect yields. Besides, last year Siberia had record yield and production performance, which is unlikely to happen two years in a row. In the two other main FSU wheat producers, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, area for 2010/11 is projected slightly down, and yields are projected close to the past 5
