The abrupt flight from Kyrgyzstan of its ousted president will ease tension in the impoverished Central Asian nation after a violent uprising against his five-year rule raised the specter of civil war. President Kurmanbek Bakiyev's departure will pave the way for the formal recognition by major powers of a provisional government which has pledged to hold free elections and bring democratic reform to the country of 5.3 million. Bakiyev's presence in southern Kyrgyzstan, where he sought refuge following the uprising, had threatened to stoke unrest in Central Asia's most flammable and ethnically divided corner. Tensions are now likely to diminish swiftly, with most of the local population standing firmly in favour of the provisional government led by interim chief Roza Otunbayeva. “This will help achieve stability and reduce tensions in the south,” said one senior source in the interim government after Bakiyev fled the country on a plane to Kazakhstan Thursday. But many people are furious over the deaths of 84 people when Bakiyev's troops opened fire on protesters, and could blame the new rulers for letting Bakiyev go free without a trial. Discontent with Bakiyev's rule had been on the boil. Many were angry with his decision to raise utility fees in a country with an average monthly wage of about $120. Now that Bakiyev has fled the country, the provisional government hopes to gain official recognition from global powers and press ahead with a major reform plan. The United States has already said it will work with the new rulers to help them restore democracy and deal with its crumbling Soviet-era infrastructure and grinding poverty. Russia has endorsed the new leadership, pledging financial aid and support for the interim government. Russia and the United States, both of whom operate military bases in Kyrgyzstan, are likely to continue jostling for influence. Otunbayeva says the country should not tilt towards any single power. Hawks in her government have said the air base that the United States rents could be closed to please Russia. Otunbayeva says it should continue to function although some elements of its operations could be reviewed. Otunbayeva, Moscow-educated and also fluent in English, says the provisional government will remain in place for six months to reform the constitution and lay the foundation for what she says would be a free and fair presidential election. Her team says elections will take place once this reform plan has been implemented, in roughly six months. No one in the interim government has so far announced plans to run for the presidency, but bickering among key players such as Otunbayeva and her powerful allies, Almaz Atambayev and Omurbek Tekebayev, could quickly emerge. Atambayev, Otunbayeva's outspoken deputy, has long-standing presidential ambitions and served as prime minister under Bakiyev before falling out with him. Tekebayev, with a support base in the south like Bakiyev, has been tasked with efforts to review the constitution, reduce presidential powers and introduce a stronger system of checks and balances. Lacking the major natural resources of its richer Central Asian neighbors, Kyrgyzstan nonetheless has a handful of foreign companies investing in its mining and banking sectors. Foreign and local business have long expressed concern about rampant corruption and urged the government to take action to improve the business climate. Otunbayeva's team says it will fire all officials guilty of corruption under Bakiyev and will work with international organizations to improve investment conditions. Kyrgyzstan's $4.7 billion economy has been badly hit by a sharp drop in remittances, which accounted for almost 30 percent of its gross domestic product in 2008. Economic growth slowed to 2.3 percent in 2009, after a rise of 8.4 percent the year before, but the economy would have contracted by 2.9 percent without the contribution of the Kumtor gold mine, which is operated by Centerra Gold Inc. Former parent company, Canadian uranium miner Cameco Corp, divested its stake in Centerra last year in a deal that saw the Kyrgyz government double its own stake in the mine, which contributes close to a tenth of Kyrgyzstan's GDP.
